Naturally, the leadership of the Taliban closely watching the ongoing processes and trying
to take them into account in building such a model of an action that would allow the efficient use
of the energy of confrontation between external actors in their own strategic interests. The ideal
option for the Taliban would be for the United States to get into a situation of “strategic
loneliness” in Afghanistan and in the region, which would hinder their freedom of maneuver and
the ability to use regional transport communications to supply their contingents.
Conclusion
So, a serious narrowing of the conceptual possibilities of the “US-official Kabul” bundle
today can actually be considered one of those factors that must be taken into account when
analyzing and forecasting processes in the Afghan crisis in the foreseeable future. This is
confirmed by the opinions that are increasingly heard in the Western media, which reflect the
understanding of the presence of a conceptual crisis in American politics in Afghanistan and urge
Washington to find at least some way to end this endless war, including the withdrawal of troops.
A clear example is the opinion of Gil Barndollar, director of the Middle East study program at the
Center for the National Interest (USA), who suggests justifying the withdrawal with the formula
"declare victory and go home." He believes that this was what should have been done in 2011
after the elimination of Osama bin Laden.
However, for now the main line of the White House will still be the policy of preserving its
geopolitical positions in Afghanistan, and at least in 2019 the main trend in its policy will be to
hold peace talks with the Taliban. Considering that next year, with a high degree of probability, it
will also be possible to expect a new round of exacerbation of relations between the United
States on the one hand, Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan, on the other; at the global and regional
level, a serious intrigue will twist around Afghanistan, extract dividends from which the Taliban
will certainly try.
Therefore, most likely, we will witness a sharp increase in its activity in at least three areas
- negotiation, military and information- which will further complicate the structure of the Afghan
crisis and, as a result, make it difficult for Washington and Kabul to develop a new strategic
concept. economic and military-political challenges.
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