World Food Policy Volume/Issue 2-2/3-1 Fall 2015/Spring 2016 | Page 143

World Food Policy

in the past, with the possible exception of
some temporary downward fluctuations.
There is a good probability that in the
medium term future prices may actually
remain above the level experienced
before the 2007–2008 price spike. Thus,
the assessment of the market situation
depends on one’s perspective. If it is short
term, say the most recent 2 years or so, then
prices are certainly declining. If one has a
somewhat longer time horizon, comparing
the medium-term outlook with what the
world was used to before prices suddenly
peaked in 2007 and subsequent years,
then one has good reasons to identify an
increase in the plateau of agricultural and
food commodity prices.

Of course, readers who expect a different
market outlook can simply reverse
the whole argument by replacing high
prices by low or declining prices, and the
implications for food security would then
be the opposite of what will be suggested
here.

Fundamentally the argument is
pretty simple. High prices are certainly
good for food producers, while they are
a problem for food consumers. How
a country overall is affected and how
individual households fare depends on
whether they are net producers or net
consumers. The most important question
to be asked, therefore, is whether the
countries or households concerned
produce as much food as they consume
and possibly even more, or whether they
Implications for Food Security
need to buy food in order to maintain
gainst the background of what was their consumption.
What are the facts regarding that
stated earlier about the market
outlook, the implications for food net trade status? First of all, for those
security will be discussed here in terms countries where food security is potentially
of the consequences of high food prices. or actually a serious problem, i.e., the least

A

Figure 8: Net Exports of Agricultural Products from Least Developed Countries
Source: FAOSTAT (2015)

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