World Food Policy Volume 2, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 9

World Food Policy

The “African Equation”

migration to cities, two thirds of these
new workers should be in rural areas
(AfDB, OECD and UNDP 2015).

SSA is facing a continuing
population growth and a massive change
in scale: while its population increased
by 560 million people between 1970 and
2010, it will increase by 1.1 billion over
the same time period between 2010 and
2050 (and possibly more). This means a
dramatic increase of the food demand and
questions the capacity of the continent
to meet the scale in terms of agri-food
production.

However, food security being
more than availability, but also access,
utilization (nutrition) and stability (of
availability, access, and utilization), the
issue of developing income generating
activities is central in framing adequate
development strategies. It particularly
puts the “job challenge” (Bhorat and
Naidoo 2013) on the frontline: at SSA’s
level, the yearly cohort of new workers
entering the labor market,7 is around
19 million today; it will increase to 27
million by 2030 and add up to nearly 370
million (i.e. 50 million more than the
current population of the United States).
These are not projections: on a 15-year
time period, these new workers have
already been born. Based on the existing
distribution of population and trends in

II - The potential and strategic
role of agriculture

T

he debate on the most appropriate
development strategy for SSA is
raging, with extremely contrasting
points of view between proponents of
industrialization and the strengthening
of urban dynamics on the one hand,
and proponents of "agriculture first" on
the other hand (Losch 2015). As far as
the "industrialists" are concerned, only
manufacturing can meet the scale of the
challenges facing Africa: agricultural
productivity is too low and the expected
progresses too slow to allow for a rapid
escape from poverty; the solution for the
future of the rural poor lies in the cities.7

But it is also important to take
into account the necessary timeframe
for an effective industrial development
with regard to the current structural
situation. There has not been significant
industrialization in SSA over the last 50
years despite significant urbanization.
Examples of industrial free trade zones
have produced mixed results and, most
importantly, they have only helped

6

The annual cohort of youth entering the working age (15–64)—which is a proxy for entering the labor
market—or reaching the age of finding an income-generating activity, is one tenth of the 15–24-year
age group. This is a flow instead of a change in the total number of workers, which takes into account
people moving from the 15–64-age group to the supposedly inactive 65+ group (a disputable criteria in
countries without a formal labor market and generalized pension system—the case of SSA).
7
The major arguments for manufacturing refer to the change in the international economic environment that would offer new opportunities for industrialization: an improved business climate in many
countries, the gradual increase in manufacturing costs in Asia due to higher wages (especially in China), and the prospects offered by task-based production—or light manufacturing (Dinh et al. 2012)—
rather than the manufacture of end products (UNIDO 2008).
8