World Food Policy Volume 2, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 8

Africa’s Structural Transformation Challenge and the Role of Agriculture

by urban growth, and handicraft.
Employment in manufacturing remains
extremely low—a few hundred thousand
jobs in most countries (and often less).

A cross-sectional feature of this
employment structure is the importance
of what is commonly called the informal
economy. This informal sector is the
bulk of Sub-Saharan African economies
because it includes agriculture, which is
almost exclusively family farming,5 and
also because urban employment happens
mainly
through
self-employment
activities or small businesses.

strong growth of the labor force—and
therefore of the demand for jobs—and a
progressive improvement of the activity
ratio (active/inactive people). However,
this improvement in the activity
structure of the population will only play
its leverage role if it is combined with
adequate public policies and a favorable
economic and institutional environment
(productive
investment,
capacity
building, innovation, and productivity
enhancement). If not, the demographic
bonus (many workers) could turn into
a "penalty" (many jobless) with major
social and political tensions.

The other critical feature
characterizing African demographic
changes is the spatial distribution of
the population. In spite of a strong
urbanization process (the urban
population increased 10-fold since
independence), the subcontinent is
still mainly rural, with around 65% in
2010, and it will remain rural until the
mid-2030s due to a slowing down in the
pace of urbanization—a consequence of
limited labor opportunities but low paid
informal jobs (Magrin 2013). Above all,
SSA is the only region of the world—with
South Asia—where rural population will
continue to grow—a consequence of
today’s spatial distribution and strong
birth rates—and it is the only region
where this growth will continue after
2050: the region will count 400 million
additional rural people by that date.

An on-going and delayed demographic
transition

These low-transforming African economies are facing a unique
demographic
reality
characterized
by an unprecedented growth and the
long-lasting importance of their rural
population. SSA is the last region of the
world to be engaged in its process of
demographic transition and the process
is far from complete: in 2050, SSA’s
population should reach a total slightly
above 2 billion people, and population
should continue to grow until after 2100.
SSA will overtake China and have two and
a half times more people than Europe (a
reversal of the relative weights of Europe
and Africa in less than a century).

This population growth will
also be accompanied by a change in the
age structure of the population, with a

5

There is a limited business/corporate sector, mainly for agricultural export (agro-industrial plantations, large mechanized farms). It represents little in terms of jobs and even less in relative terms: in
countries where it is best W7F&Ɨ6