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Survey Says!
Policy Summit crowd thinks good times
are coming–just not anytime soon.
Jason Hagey
Pollster Stuart Elway handed out electronic polling devices to the audience at AWB’s Policy
Summit and asked members a series of questions about the Washington economy, their
businesses and football. Their answers reflect a belief that things will slowly improve.
Want to know what’s going to happen with the
economy? You could find out what economists
have to say. Or you could ignore the experts
and listen to the people who are actually
running businesses.
That’s what AWB did in September during
our annual Policy Summit at Suncadia Resort.
Renowned Northwest pollster Stuart
Elway armed about 200 Policy Summit
guests with an electronic recording device
and asked them a series of questions about
everything from when they expect to hire
more workers to who they think will win this
year’s Apple Cup.
The answers reveal some faint signs of
optimism, tempered with a fair amount of
over the next year, do you expect the
state economy to:
0%
35%
27%
33%
4%
Improve greatly
Improve slightly
Stay the same
Decline slightly
Decline greatly
over the next year, how likely is your
organization to hire new employees:
36%
17%
13%
29%
5%
Very likely
Maybe
Probably not
Very unlikely
Don’t know
anxiety. (And perhaps a bit of a Husky bias — 60 percent said they believe
the University of Washington will win this year’s football showdown.)
On the bright side, 91 percent of respondents said they expect the
economy to improve either slightly or greatly over the next five years.
Just 4 percent think it will stay the same and only 6 percent believe it will
decline either slightly or greatly.
But optimism about the short-term isn’t quite as strong.
recovery slow in coming
Just 1 percent said they believe there will be a noticeable improvement in
Washington’s economy within the next six months. Nearly half (47 percent)
of respondents said it will be more than two years before there is a noticeable improvement in the state’s economy. Another 45 percent believe it will
take somewhere between one and two years.
In other words, most folks believe better days are coming — slowly.
Hiring is an important barometer of the economy, and the numbers here
reflect a similar mix of optimism and caution. When
respondents were asked
whether their organizations
will hire new employees in the
next six months, the greatest
number — 38 percent — said
it’s “very likely” while another
9 percent said “maybe.” That’s
nearly 50 percent who indicate there’s a decent chance
their company will bring in
new workers within the next
six months.
On the other hand, a third
of respondents said it’s “very
unlikely” their organization
will be making new hires in
that time frame, and another
18 percent said “probably not.”
A decidedly mixed bag.
Pollster Stuart Elway addresses the 2011
Policy Summit audience.
54 association of washington business