NEWS
PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF E-CIGARETTE
USE ON SMOKERS’ LIKELIHOOD TO QUIT
“Even small increases in quitting for dual users can
have a positive public health impact” says study
A new study predicts that when e-cigarettes are available
to smokers, even moderate increases in the success of
dual users (those who use both) to quit smoking can
have a significant benefit on the overall population.
Scientists at British American Tobacco have developed a
mathematical technique to investigate how the availability of
e-cigarettes might impact smokers’ likelihood to use them.
The model takes account of the way people use these products
and utilises the past to predict the future. The results show that
dual use can be a significant stepping stone to quitting altogether.
Even small increases in quitting smoking can have a significant
impact. For example, the model indicates that a 10% increase
in quit rates could lead to significant positive public health
outcomes on mortality related to tobacco and nicotine use.
Dr James Murphy, Head of Reduced Risk Substantiation
at British American Tobacco, said: “We have previously
shown that the availability of e-cigarettes can have a
beneficial effect on the population as a whole by reducing
smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths.
“But what about those smokers who take up e-cigarettes
or other potentially reduced-risk alternatives to
conventional cigarettes but continue to smoke?”
Scientists used a predictive modelling technique
to look at a number of possible scenarios over
a 100-year period between 2000 and 2100.
The baseline scenario was that e-cigarettes and
other alternatives products are freely available
as an alternative to conventional cigarettes.
12 ISSUE 12 VAPOUROUND MAGAZINE
Comparative projections were then made by changing some
of the model parameters such as dual use switching rates,
consumption changes or probability of completely quitting
cigarettes and the results were presented at the recent annual
conference of the Global Forum on Nicotine in Warsaw, Poland.
“This modelling approach is an informative way
of assessing population health effects when
epidemiological data are not available,”
says Murphy.
The results reinforce views that the introduction of
e-cigarettes is likely to benefit UK population health,
even in very conservative scenarios.
Future models may also study the use of additional
products, such as tobacco-heating products and snus;
characteri se the U K popul ati on by ethni ci t y, social
economic status, and education level; and factor in
affordability, smoking bans, health campaigns/risk
perception or packaging regulations, say the researchers.
Many in the public health community believe e-cigarettes
offer great potential for reducing the public health impact
of smoking.
In 2012 draft guidance for companies wishing to introduce a
new novel tobacco product to the US market place, the Food
and Drug Administration encouraged the development and
use of predictive modelling for assessing the effect of this
product introduction.