Page 3
|
18
16
14
12
10
8
|
11.79 12.05
90.2
114.5
|
13.37 13.46
103.4 103.7
|
13.00
84.3
|
15.36
115.0
|
13.85
106.6
|
93.3
9.01
140
121.1 120
13.79
100
80
|
7
6
5
4
3
|
6.01
1.97
|
4.56
Industrial production sales
5.51
5.91
1.75 1.77
5.65
2.48
|
Retail turnover of enterprises
5.80 5.71
1.70 1.69
5.43
1.95
5.72
1.76
|
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
|
|
6
4
2
0
|
Ukrainian Internation trade in pharma production
Export & Import , mio USD |
Export |
Import |
Jan-Sep 2015 |
|
|
Source : ukrstat . gov . ua |
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
60
40
20
|
2
1
0
|
0.74
Industrial production sales & Retail turnover of enterprises surplus
Jan-Sep 2015 , bn USD
Source : ukrstat . gov . ua ; NBU Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
|
1.0
0.5
0.0
|
|
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
|
128.5
19.26
15.81
28.95 29.52
134.5
24.48
145.8
26.92
23.26 22.71
160.9 158.4 157.5 155.3 152.8 151.9
25.48 24.91
26.09 25.91 26.14
20.92 21.23 21.76 21.63 21.78
UAH / USD UAH / EUR CPI of Ukraine
OFFICIAL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE
+ Consumer Price Index
Jan-Sep 2015
Source : ukrstat . gov . ua ; NBU Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
|
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
|
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
|
239.8
132.4
143.9
177.0
197.6
141.5
180.0
122.6
Pharma retail sales
Values ( mio USD ) & Volumes ( mio units ) Jan-Sep 2015
mio USD
193.0
124.5
177.7
mio units
172.6
177.1
118.4 119 . 5 122.5
193.2
126.7
Source : apteka . ua Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
|
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
|
KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS
»»
The military conflict in the east of Ukraine is still among the crucial domestic factors affecting the economic situation in the country . A relative freezing of the conflict is among the main factors behind a gradual recovery of economic activity since Q3 2015 .
»»
On Sept 16 , 2015 , in its report “ Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan ”, The World Bank has made a forecast predicting Ukraine ’ s real GDP to fall by 12 percent with inflation of 50.8 percent as of late 2015 . In comparison , previous forecast ( made in April ) predicted 7.5 % decline . Now the Bank projects 1 % real GDP growth in 2016 .
»»
The World Bank ’ s Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan has provided $ 0.5 bn loan to support Ukrainian authorities on strengthening banking and financial sector .
»»
On Sept 16 , the NBU reached an agreement with Sveriges Riskbank ( Sweden ) on a $ 500 mio swap . The sixmonth agreement is aimed at confidence strengthening in the economic reform program in Ukraine .
»»
Due to the deals indicated above , the gross international reserves of Ukraine rose 1.2 % to $ 12.8 bn in Sept .
»»
Industrial sales in Aug slowed down by 5.9 % PPG and by 22.8 % y-o-y . However , some industrial sectors showed a renewal as in Jul the decline was 32.7 % y-o-y . In Sept , the industrial sales increased by 5.3 % PPG , while in compresence to the same period of the previous year , the decline was 19.9 %. The output of such fields like metals production and mining has shown a slight improvement (+ 3.0 % and + 3.2 % y-o-y , respectively ).
»»
The NBU projects the general government fiscal deficit at 3 % of GDP ( 6.3 % of GDP including Naftogaz ) in 2015 . At the same time , a rather sizable NBU profit transfer to the budget of about 3.3 % of GDP ( UAH 61.8 bn ) should soften budget constraints this year .
»»
As of 1HY2015 , the external debt of Ukraine was $ 127 bn or 122.8 % of GDP . The new loans from the IMF and other Western partners were the key sources of Ukraine ’ s capital inflow in 1HY2015 .
»»
Ukraine ’ s 2016 budget plan sets an exchange rate at UAH 24.1 / USD , Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko stated on Sept 8 . The Finance Ministry is also planning the 2016 general budget deficit at 3.7 % of GDP .
»»
On Aug 24 , the government reached an agreement with its main external creditors to restructure about $ 18 bn of its external public debt issued in Eurobonds . This agreement should provide stability to the foreign exchange markets .
»»
At a regular monetary policy decision-making meeting on Sept 24 , 2015 the Board of the NBU decided to cut the NBU discount rate from 27 % to 22 %.
»»
The National Bank of Ukraine expects a surplus in the overall balance of payments together with the IMF tranches will allow increasing Ukraine ’ s gross international reserves to $ 18.0 bn as of the end of 2015 .
Ukrainian Pharmaceutical Market Monthly : September / August 2015