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MICHAEL ’ S CERTAMEN PREDICTIONS
About the Author : Michael Kearney is a four time WJCL State Certamen champion and has captained the Wisconsin Nationals team each of the past three years . He has won Nationals Certamen at least seven times in his sleep and currently serves as the National Junior Classical League First Vice President . 1 . Florida As much as it pains me , who else could it be ? Florida is the perennial powerhouse of the past decade — and if not for the final tossup of novice last year , they would have achieved the coveted Certamen sweep . Nonetheless , Florida returns National Champions from both Intermediate and Advanced — including Hall of Famers Noah McThenia , Graham Hardcastle , et al . Although Florida ’ s powerhouse Oak Hall fell in the finals of the GA-FL tournament to Boston Latin School , it should still fancy its chances — Florida is much more than Oak Hall , and it will remain to be seen whether the same can be said about Massachusetts and BLS .
Key player : Florida , above all else , is renowned for its depth . Keep an eye out for Graham Hardcastle and Noah Harris but know that anyone on the team will do serious damage
2 . Massachusetts Despite my previous statement , running a gauntlet that includes the Yale , Harvard , and GA-FL Certamen tournaments cannot be marginalized . Massachusetts retains National Champions ( Intermediate , UNLV 2013 ) William and Michael Gao ( to be immortalized as the constellation Gemini if they win ) as well as Nestoras Apodiakos ( conspicuously absent from Nationals last year ). The question that remains is whether they able to replicate their form from more regional Certamina at the highest level . If they do , God help us all .
Key Player : Someone , anyone , that ’ s not from BLS — if only to look pretty up on stage .
3 . Georgia The loss of grammarian Vinu Eranezhath ( yes , I did have to look up how to spell that ) hits hard — the jury is still out on who the replacement will be ( and indeed , if they can measure up ). Even so , the solid core of historian Bryan Wu and literarian ( yes , I just invented that ) Lucy Wang should still prove trouble for most teams . Georgia ’ s star seemed to be rising when it won its first championship in 2014 but a disappointing semi-final performance in Advanced last year left them reeling — this year may prove to be a catalyst for the future or perhaps , although unlikely , the beginning of a slow slide back into anonymity .
Key Player : Whoever ends up as mythologian and grammarian — will they be able to face up to the pressure ?
4 . Wisconsin Sure , call me biased , I probably am — but hear me out . Wisconsin has not had a true powerhouse team since the days of Sidhi Gosain and Ketan Ramakrishnan and although this team may not be knowledgeable or practiced enough to recapture the magic , it will possibly be the best Wisconsin team we see this decade . There is the potential to be great — but potential means very little up on the big stage .
Key Player : Margot Armbruster ( and no , I ’ m not saying that because I ’ m writing this article for her ). Wisconsin generally does not lack for specialty players but rarely , if ever , finds a true grammarian — Margot could be she .
5 . Texas I briefly entertained the possibility of ranking Texas lower than fifth — but I couldn ’ t bring myself to do it . No matter what , Texas always turns up at the National Level . Experience is found in Cass Plowman ( Academic decathlon winner as a sophomore ), Colby Lorenz , and Ishmael Abubara , all three of whom played on a talented Texas team last year . Expect Texas to rack up the points against lesser quality competition ( I ’ m famously reminded of Texas Novice ’ s 805 points in prelims at Emory ) but possibly struggle against teams made of tougher mettle ( I ’ m also famously reminded of that same Texas Novice team at Emory , which failed to advance out of semifinals ).
Key Player : Cass Plowman — he clearly has the knowledge and , more often that not , the speed on the buzzer . However , he may struggle to find his feet on a Texas team with which he is not entirely comfortable ( he tends to play as a 1-man team for his school , LASA )— but if he does , there may be no stopping the Lone Star State .
6 . Virginia Again , I briefly considered dropping Virginia below the Top 6 — and again I couldn ’ t bring myself to do it . We have the team — Ryan Klopp , Merritt Schwartz , Sayeed Akhtar , and Jocelyn Robertson — and frankly , I know very little about most of these players . I ’ m counting mostly on Virginia ’ s ability to consistently turn out a quality team and the fact that it ’ s generally unwise to bet against a state with caliber of Virginia .
Key Player : Merritt Schwartz . The most recognizable name on that list , he is the man whom I expect will be the lynchpin around which this team is based .