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Alasdair Haynes, founder and CEO, Aquis Exchange
I can’t imagine that the first
quarter, or even the first half,
of 2019 will be dominated by
anything other than Brexit.
Either there is going to be an
escalation of the frantic rush
to get everything in place for
whatever type of deal has been
agreed or there will be total chaos
should we end up with a ‘no deal’,
or even a ‘no Brexit’, scenario.
In such an atmosphere, we can
expect market volatility to soar
as rumours, statements and
counter-statements fill the void.
However, taking a longer view
and a more global one, I think
2019 will be a year of politics
not economics. On a more micro
level, I believe 2019 will be the
year that crypto currencies and
tokenisation either go big or
go home. The time has come
for these new asset classes to
become more understood, used
and possibly even regulated.
If that doesn’t happen in the
next year or so, I think this
business may just remain a
niche within the financial
services industry and
miss its window of
opportunity.
Arzish Baaquie, managing director, Smartkarma UK
2019 will see continued topsy-
turvy performance of the
emerging markets, doubtlessly
throttled by the China-US trade
war. Volatility will present some
opportunities for emerging
markets fund managers to
pick up high-quality assets at
discounted valuations but overall
investment managers will be
relatively conservative with their
outlook in the first two quarters
of the year. The battle for the
research budget spend will also
remain. Sell-side incumbents
will continue dropping the prices
of their written research (the
theme of ‘cross-subsidisation’
will continue) until the research
becomes a proxy for ‘issuer-paid
research’. Meanwhile, investment
managers will continue
looking out for innovative,
differentiated research sources/
providers – issuer-paid research
is the antithesis of a portfolio
manager’s investment process,
and thus, independent research
will be in demand. Independent
research providers will need to
review their pricing models and/
or embrace effective interaction
and distribution networks.
Scott Bradley, head of sales and marketing,
London Stock Exchange Secondary Markets and Turquoise
MiFID II was possibly the most
far reaching overhaul of market
infrastructure in a generation.
As a result, a core focus for 2019
will be managing the lessons
learned. In addition, navigating
the “known unknowns” in
the market, including those
surrounding Brexit, will further
highlight the importance of
partnerships amongst market
participants. There will be a
continued drive for innovation
and decisions based on
meaningful data in order to make
best execution become a reality.
The vast amounts
of data generated,
collected and analysed
through 2018 will need to
be employed accordingly
in 2019 as competition for
liquidity will continue
to toughen.
Issue 58 // TheTradeNews.com // 79