Both Ayotte ’ s seat and Florida ’ s open Republican seat are hotly contested this fall , and those seats , along with a trio of seats in divided Midwestern state delegations , will determine the balance of Senate control . In Ohio , Republican freshman Sen . Rob Portman is being challenged by former Democratic Gov . Ted Strickland ; in Wisconsin Republican Sen . Ron Johnson faces off against liberal former Sen . Russ Feingold ; and in Illinois moderate Republican Sen . Mark Kirk is vulnerable to Democratic Rep . Tammy Duckworth .
In all three states , Democrats will be favored to carry the state at the presidential level but popular Republican governors have proven their electorates are open-minded , or at least volatile .
The other two states with the most closely watched Senate races at this point are Nevada , where unpopular Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid is hanging it up , and Pennsylvania , where Sen . Pat Toomey , the last Republican standing in the mid- Atlantic , is trying to prove his 1-percentage-point win in 2010 was no fluke .
Campaigns aren ’ t the only manifestation of a changing tenor in the Senate chambers . The ongoing debate about President Barack Obama ’ s nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court vacancy is another . In the not-so-distant past , new justices were confirmed almost automatically .
Archconservative Antonin Scalia , the man Garland hopes to replace , was confirmed on a vote of 98-0 in a chamber narrowly held by Republicans . Five other nominees since have garnered over 75 votes , including picks of both Democratic and Republican presidents , with each total requiring ample bipartisan support .
But Reid ’ s heavy partisan hand in administering the Senate as majority leader during the first six years of Obama ’ s term , including using unprecedented parliamentary force to prevent even routine Republican floor amendments and his will to jam through confirmation of Democratic judges to lower courts , has left the chamber bitterly divided . It ’ s safe to say Garland will never be confirmed by the Senate , unless Democrats reclaim a majority in November – and that ’ s driven in part by a reaction to Reid ’ s poisoning of the chamber ’ s comity .
In years past , the kind of hardball tactics Reid pursued would not have been accepted by back-bench senators who feared facing centrist electorates back home . But with few states sending divided delegations today , that fear now rarely exists .
If the current trend persists toward single-party delegations from the states , Republicans have the slight advantage , due in part to the fact that lesser-populated states dominated by the GOP get two Senate seats just like the more urbane and denser Democratic bastions on the coasts .
Republicans hold 31 governorships , and in 2012 , Mitt Romney won 24 states even in defeat , representing 48 of a possible 100 Senate seats .
A Senate with few senators worried about ticket-splitters and a narrow margin leaning to Republican control ? That may be the next era in American politics – and this year ’ s elections will show the way . S
BRAD TODD is partner with OnMessage Inc ., a media firm providing campaign planning for Republican candidates at the state and national level .
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31
THESCORE | 2016 Issue 3
Both Ayotte’s seat and Florida’s open Republican seat are
hotly contested this fall, and those seats, along with a trio of
seats in divided Midwestern state delegations, will determine
the balance of Senate control. In Ohio, Republican freshman
Sen. Rob Portman is being challenged by former Democratic
Gov. Ted Strickland; in Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson
faces off against liberal former Sen. Russ Feingold; and in Illinois
moderate Republican Sen. Mark Kirk is vulnerable to Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth.
In all three states, Democrats will be favored to carry the state
at the presidential level but popular Republican governors have
proven their electorates are open-minded, or at least volatile.
The other two states with the most closely watched Senate
races at this point are Nevada, where unpopular Democratic
Majority Leader Harry Reid is hanging it up, and Pennsylvania,
where Sen. Pat Toomey, the last Republican standing in the midAtlantic, is trying to prove his 1-percentage-point win in 2010 was
no fluke.
Campaigns aren’t the only manifestation of a changing
tenor in the Senate chambers. The ongoing debate about President Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland to the
Supreme Court vacancy is another. In the not-so-distant past,
new justices were confirmed almost automatically.
Archconservative Antonin Scalia, the man Garland hopes
to replace, was confirmed on a vote of 98-0 in a chamber
narrowly held by Republicans. Five other nominees since have
garnered over 75 votes, including picks of both Democratic and
Republican presidents, with each total requiring ample bipartisan support.
But Reid’s heavy partisan hand in administering the Senate
as majority leader during the first six years of Obama’s term,
including using unprecedented parliamentary force to prevent
even routine Republican floor amendments and his will to jam
through confirmation of Democratic judges to lower courts, has
left the chamber bitterly divided. It’s safe to say Garland will
never be confirmed by the Senate, unless Democrats reclaim a
majority in November – and that’s driven in part by a reaction to
Reid’s poisoning of the chamber’s comity.
In years past, the kind of hardball tactics Reid pursued
would not have been accepted by back-bench senators who
feared facing centrist electorates back home. But with few states
sending divided delegations today, that fear now rarely exists.
If the current trend persists toward single-party delegations
from the states, Republicans have the slight advantage, due in
part to the fact that lesser-populated states dominated by the
GOP get two Senate seats just like the more urbane and denser
Democratic bastions on the coasts.
Republicans hold 31 governorships, and in 2012, Mitt
Romney won 24 states even in defeat, representing 48 of a
possible 100 Senate seats.
A Senate with few senators worried about ticket-splitters
and a narrow margin leaning to Republican control? That may
be the next era in American politics – and this year’s elections
will show the way. S
BRAD TODD is partner with OnMessage Inc., a media firm providing
campaign planning for Republican candidates at the state and
national level.
It’s Like Nothing
You’ve Ever
Seen Before
If I’m not there,
who knows
what time we’re
opening?
What are you thinking about?
We’re thinking about your security.
With Tyco Integrated Security’s Mobile Security
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