the chamber; with 24 of the 34 Senate races currently held by
Republicans, the GOP has a lot of territory to defend, and Dems
need to win just five states – or four if Democrats win the White
House because the vice president breaks any ties – to regain
control of the Senate.
However, with one-third of the Senate up for election,
the key to determining Senate control is based on just a few
key races across the country. The following five races will likely
determine the fate of the Senate.
New Hampshire
In arguably the toughest race in the country, two strong
females are battling it out for the New Hampshire Senate seat.
First-term incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) has been moving to the
center in an effort to appeal to more moderate voters. Meanwhile, her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, a wellliked politician in the state, decided to forego a third term as
governor to challenge the incumbent. While this race will likely
be a nail-biter, recent polls show Sen. Ayotte may just pull this
win out.
Pennsylvania
In 2010, Pat Toomey barely won the Pennsylvania Senate
seat over then-Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak. Sestak
sought a rematch with Toomey in the 2016 election but lost the
Democratic primary to Katie McGinty, an environmentalist and
former chief of staff to Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. Toomey,
a fiscally conservative first-termer, is moving to the center on
issues like gun control. However, with Trump at the top of the
ticket, many believe that the Pennsylvania incumbent will be
negatively impacted in a state that voted for Obama twice.
Current polls show this race as a dead heat.
Indiana
With incumbent Sen. Dan Coats retiring, the open Indiana
seat has been receiving increased attention since former Sen.
Evan Bayh threw his hat in the ring. Bayh, who held the seat
through 2010, entered the race late and has since been receiving
criticism for being a D.C. insider with no connections to the
Hoosier state. His opponent, Republican Todd Young, is a
conservative former U.S. Marine finishing up his third term in
Congress. Despite his conservative record in this fairly red state,
Young doesn’t have the name recognition that Bayh has – a
factor that is threatening his once-likely victory.
Illinois
Yet another first-term Republican, incumbent Sen. Rob
Portman, is another target of Democrats this year. A former
U.S. trade representative, Sen. Portman has impressive foreign
relations experience and has raised a significant amount of
money while receiving the endorsement of several labor unions,
traditionally regarded as supporting Democrats. His opponent, former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, seems to be banking on
another top-of-the-ticket strategy, hoping the purple state will
lean blue this November. As of mid-September, Portman was
gaining steam, so Strickland has quite a fight on his hands.
Other Notables
In Nevada, Rep. Joe Heck is the only candidate likely to flip
a state from blue to red. The states of Arizona, North Carolina,
Florida and Missouri are likely to see Republican incumbents
McCain, Burr, Rubio and Blunt retain their seats but still have a
fight on their hands. In Wisconsin, incumbent Republican Sen.
Ron Johnson is in a losing battle with former Sen. Russ Feingold. Incumbent Democratic Colorado Sen. Michael Bennett
will likely eke out a win against Republican El Paso County
Commissioner Darryl Glenn.
With candidates both old and new battling it out this election and with numerous important issues on the table, the 2016
race for the Senate is certainly one to watch. S
MISTY CHALLY is Franchise Business Services’ vice president of
legislative affairs.
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THE
Another first-time incumbent, Republican Sen. Mark Kirk
may be another victim of the“top-of-the-ticket” strategy. In
a state that Obama won by double digits in 2012, Kirk has a
moderate voting record on social issues, including abortion
and same-sex marriage. His opponent, two-term Democratic
Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, is a double amputee Iraq
war veteran and former assistant secretary of the Veterans Affairs
Department. Kirk, who suffered a stroke less than halfway
through his first term, is distancing himself from the top of the
ticket but is still polling behind Duckworth in recent polls.
Ohio