forecast to remain between $ 145- $ 157 a tonne until 2025 .
Soya bean prices are expected to remain weak due to a stronger US dollar and the weak Brazilian Real and the Argentine Peso encouraging planting in South America . Soya beans , which are at $ 313 a tonne , are forecast to drop to $ 311a tonne , on average , in 2016-17 before rebounding to $ 355 a tonne by 2021-22 and remain relatively steady through to 2025 .
Wheat prices are expected to increase from an average $ 5188 a tonne in 2015 to $ 223 a tonne in 2020-21 .
While weather problems will cause prices to rise in certain years , it was impossible to predict when or how frequently this would occur , Informa said .
The slide in crop prices and lower profit margins for growers over the past few years has led to active deal making among agribusinesses as leading performers look to cut costs , seek economies of scale and strengthen their balance sheets to weather the storm .
The report predicted that a “ prolonged low-price environment could lead to further industry consolidation ”.
On acreage used for various crops , Informa said growth would shift to soya bean production from maize as China tries to reduce its maize inventories and grain-based ethanol production growth slows . The maize area is forecast to grow 3.6 per cent over the next decade to 183.7m hectares while the soya bean acreage is predicted to rise 14 per cent to 139.2m ha supported by demand growth in meat among emerging markets , especially China .
Should Zambia be looking at export meat production rather than maize and soya beans ?
El Niño cools A
By PATRICK MCGROARTY & NICHOLAS BARIYO
Protectionism and smuggling routes are blooming across Africa , instead of maize and cassava , as a record drought pushes countries to hoard grain and drives more than 30-million people towards hunger . The ocean-warming phenomenon known as El Niño is extending Africa ’ s worst dry spell in three decades , raising the spectre of a second poor harvest in many countries .
Africa ’ s intensifying food crisis is just one manifestation of El Niño ’ s advance . An abnormally severe dry season stoked the devastating fires that covered Indonesia and its neighbours in smoke in November . California fruit farms and Brazil sugar plantations are bracing for the violent rains El Niño conditions typically bring to their shores .
The extent to which these droughts and deluges are being exacerbated by climate change was debated recently by leaders from every country in Paris . They reached a landmark agreement to cut emissions and hold the global temperature increase to no more than an average of 2 ° C . They also agreed to funnel more than $ 100bn annually to developing countries to make it happen .
The deepening drought is the latest drag on Africa ’ s economic rise . Plunging commodity prices and the slowdown in China , the continent ’ s top trade partner , have pushed growth to its lowest level since the global financial crisis .
In South Africa , this year has been the driest on Derek Mathews ’ farm 220 Km west of Johannesburg since 1929 , when his grandfather ran it . " You forget it could ever rain again ," he said recently , picking up a handful of dusty soil and letting it
44 FARMERS GAZETTE November 2015