式，在传统医院和诊所以外的多种场景下使用进步科
技提供医疗服务。由于监管不确定性的不断增加，通过
传统并购、合资和合伙经营方式实现的企业合并将在
整个医疗领域继续。
and with the technology advancement. As a result of
increased regulatory uncertainty, consolidation will continue
across the entire healthcare sector through both traditional
M&A as well as joint ventures and partnerships.
TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS
技术进步
医疗科学和信息技术的进步正越来越多地被引入医疗
护理中，也在提高病患健康意识和处治效果方面发挥
着至关重要的作用。
医疗技术不仅使得成千上万种过去难以辨明和难以诊
断的新型疾病、症状和病痛得以处理和治疗，其更为重
要的作用还体现在个性化处治上。精准和实时的生物
统计驱动医学是一种依赖技术来获取、汇集和分析海
量染色体数据的全新方法。
特别地，它会引发一场“专门医疗”革命，将医疗需求推
向更高层面。虽然汇集和维护覆盖多种医疗环境的纵
向个人医疗记录依然极具挑战，为了回应基于价值的
偿付计划，在多种门诊环境下提供高质量护理已经成
为一种必需，它要求在不妥协安全性与准确性的情况下
及时提供数据，而这就需要技术上的支持。Fitbit等消
费产品的进步也在推动着个性化医疗方式的步伐。医
疗科学、IT和消费产品的技术发展正在改变着医疗服
务交付的格局。门诊诊所作为这一格局中的重要组成
部分将得到来自迅速进步的科学技术的助力。
稳固的供求基础
高准入门槛极大地限制了医疗办公楼领域的投机发
展，导致了极少的过度供给市场。起初是由于大萧条的
影响，但Marcus & Millichap Research的一项报告显
示，自从围绕着ACA的不确定性带来了障碍，医疗办公
楼发展较2008年下降了60%。
市场多方面的不确定性也放缓了医疗承租人在决定新
医疗办公楼场所时的脚步。我们预计2017年年底前竣
工的建筑场所仍将远远低于上一周期的平均值。据世
邦魏理仕统计，2016年第三季度结束时，正在建造中的
医疗办公楼场所总面积为1840万平方英尺，仅占全部
供应量的1.4%。
在需求方面，即使近期监管不确定性依然存在，需求
依然高涨。2015年美国在医疗领域开销总计3.1万亿
美元。美国劳工统计局数据显示，2014到2024年间，
医疗领域的就业预计将增长超过20%，产生380万
个新岗位，这将高于美国的任何一个其他行业。根据
Marcus & Millichap Research的报告，与波动和稳定
变化速率较低的传统办公空间占用率相比，医疗办公
楼占用率自从最近2008到2012大萧条起表现出了极低
的波动性。自从2016年中期空闲率自大萧条以来首次
WWW.THECHINAINVESTOR.COM
The advance in medical science as well as Information
Technology that has been increasingly integrated into
medical care is playing a significant role in greater
patient health awareness and treatments. Medical
technology has not only enabled thousands of new
diseases, conditions and afflictions that were unknown
and undiagnosed, to be addressed and treated, but more
importantly to personalize treatment. Precise and real
time biometric-driven medicine is a new paradigm that
requires technologies to capture, aggregate and analyze
massive volumes of genomic data. This could particularly
create a revolution in “specialized medicine” that pushes
medical demand even higher.
Although aggregating and maintaining a longitudinal
personal medical record across multiple care settings
remains a significant challenge, quality care provided in
multiple outpatient settings is becoming mandated in order
to respond to value-based reimbursement programs and
it requires timely data without compromising security and
accuracy. The latter will have to be addressed technically.
The advancements in consumer products, such as Fitbit,
are also promoting the paradigm of personalized medicine.
The technology development in medical science, IT and
consumer product are changing the landscape of healthcare
delivery. Outpatient clinic as an important components of
such, will be bolstered by rapid technological advancements.
ROBUST DEMAND AND SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS
The high barrier to entry has largely limited speculative
development of MOBs which leads to few oversupplied
markets. Initially due to the recession, but since hindered by
uncertainty surrounding the ACA, medical office building
development has declined by 60 percent comparing to
2008, according to a report by Marcus & Millichap Research.
The uncertainty in many aspects of the market has slowed
down the medical tenants’ decisions on new MOB spaces.
We expect that th