2008-2016
医疗办公楼建设竣工情况
MOB Construction Completions
建成面积（百万平方英尺）
Square Feet Completed (millions)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
数据来源：“Medical Office Research National Report”，Marcus & Millichap Research，2016年第三季度
Source：“Medical Office Research National Report”. Marcus & Millichap Research, 3Q, 2016.
是在门诊基础上完成的。这一转型正引导着整个产业
的活动，本文将详细阐述驱动这一转型的趋势和因素。
推动医疗房地产持续强势增长的主要趋势和因素包
括：不断变化的人口特征、医疗监管环境、技术进步、
稳固的供求基础和极具吸引力的投资属性。
不断变化的人口特征
迅速老龄化的人群和不断增长的人口寿命对医疗房地
产界不断扩张的需求起着关键作用。据美国人口调查
局估计，至少到2060年，65岁以上人口将持续成为全
部年龄人口中增长速率最高的区间，在未来15年中这
种增长态势预计将特别明显。到2030年，预计65岁以
上人口将增长2500万，涨幅超过50%,总数将超过美国
总人口的20%。北美精算师协会的调查还表明，美国
人口的寿命正在延长，一名65岁的女性寿命达到90岁
的概率超过40%。逐步衰老的人口对接下来几十年中
不断增长的医疗护理需求有着极其深刻的影响。
医疗监管环境的今天与明天
在监督管理改革和资金市场动态的推动下，今天的美
国医疗产业正经历着重组。医疗产业的监管背景和驱
动力从奥巴马医改和平价医疗法案中便可见一斑。
虽然当前政府已经宣布其部分废除2010年患者保护与
WWW.THECHINAINVESTOR.COM
the majority of surgeries) is on an outpatient basis. This
transformation is leading the industry activities and is
driven by the trends and factors that will be illustrated in
detail in the following sections. The main trends and factors
underlying the continued strong growth of medical real
estate include: changing demographics, the healthcare
regulatory environment, technology advancements,
robust demand and supply fundamentals and attractive
investment attributes.
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
A rapidly aging population and increasing longevity play a
key role in the expanding demand for medical real estate.
Population growth in the 65+ year-old category is expected
to remain the highest among all age groups through
at least 2060, with particularly strong growth during
the next 15 years.
Through 2030, the 65+ population is projected to increase
by more than 50 percent, or by 25 million people, to
account for more than 20 percent of the U.S. population,
according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Americans are also
living longer - based on research by the Society of Actuaries,
a 65-year-old female has a more than 40 percent chance
of living to at least the age of 90. Aging generation has a
dramatic effect in increasing healthcare demand over the
next several decades.
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