规模扩大 , 必须租借更多办公场所 。 需求增加推高租 用率 , 房东能够增加租金 —— 这是房地产收益的两个 组成部分 。 长期以来 , 房地产收益增长速度一直高于 通胀 。 所以 , 拥有房地产一直优于持有受通胀影响的 债券 。
股票价格上涨来自于对投资收入增加的预期或变现 。 当 市 场 处 于 理 性 状 态 时 , 房 地 产 价 格 也 会 以相 同 的 方 式变化 。 但是实际驱动房地产价格的是资金流 。 当某 类资产吸引力增加 , 受到热捧 , 会有更多的资金流入 , 推高价格 。 有时 , 尽管市场会处于短期非理性状态 , 但 是这些波动最终会被更加理性的预期克服 , 市场通常 会予以更正 。
长期以来 , 房地产产生了 “ 不同于股票的增值 ”, 但是其 长期价格增长优于通胀 。 长期以来 , 房地产的总收益 一直介于股票和债券之间 , 但是其波动性远远低于股 票 , 基 于 风 险 的 收 益 率 高 于 债 券 。 以 下 图 表 显 示了 过 去 35 年的房地产 、 股票和债券历史对比情况的现有数 据 。 附表 1 显示了三大主要资产类别的历史收益率 — 债券 、 房地产和股票 ( 通过三项主要股票指数覆盖大 盘 、 中 盘 和 小 盘 股 进 行 比 对 ) 。
利用涵盖过去四个美国经济周期的 5,10,15,20,30 和 35 年平均数据 , 平均收益率相对稳定 , 收益率波动 也较平稳 。 然而 , 过去五年中的平均收益反映了自美 国大萧条以来收益率有所恢复 , 所以过去五年平均收 益率应高于其长期平均收益率 ( 除历史利率非常低的 债券外 ) 。 economy expands , companies grow and they must lease more space . That increased demand increases occupancies and landlords are able to increase rents -- these are the two components of income for real estate . Historically , real estate income growth has outpaced inflation . Thus , owning real estate has been better than having an inflationadjusted bond .
Price appreciation in stocks comes from the anticipation of , or the realization of increased income from an investment ( when the market is being rational ). Real estate prices act the same way when the market is rational . But it is actually capital flows that drive real estate prices . When an asset class is more attractive and in favor , more money flows in -- driving prices up . There are times when the markets are not rational in the short term , but these emotions are eventually overcome by more rational expectations and the markets usually correct . Historically , real estate has produced “ not quite stock-like appreciation ” but has had long-term price growth that is better than inflation .
Real estate ’ s total return has consistently been somewhere between stocks and bonds historically , but with substantially less volatility than stocks and a higher risk-adjusted return than bonds . Charts in this article provide a historic comparison over the last 35 years of available data . Exhibit 1 shows the historic returns for the three major asset classes — bonds , real estate and stocks ( with the three major stock indices that cover large , medium and small cap stocks ). Using 5- , 10- , 15- , 20- , 30- and 35-year averages that cover the past four U . S . economic cycles , the return averages are relatively consistent , as are the volatility of those returns . However , the return average for the past five years reflects the recovery in returns from the Great Recession in the U . S . and thus the past five-year average return should be above their long-term averages ( except for bonds with very low historic interest rates ).
1980-2016
收益率波动性
Return Volatility
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附表 1 |
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EXHIBIT 1 |
5 年平均值 |
10 年平均值 |
15 年平均值 |
20 年平均值 |
30 年平均值 |
35 年平均值 |
5-Year Avg |
10-Year Avg |
15-Year Avg |
20-Year Avg |
25-Year Avg |
30-Year Avg |
30.00
24.2 %
25.00
20.00
19.3 % 16.7 %
15.00 7.6 %
10.00 5.8 %
5.00
0
债券 房地产 NCREIF 罗素 2000 标普 500 纳斯达克
Bond S & P INV Gr Corp
Real Estate NCREIF
Russell 2000 S & P 500
NASDAQ
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