The China Investor Volume 1, Issue 2 | Page 53

誉获取利益;承担政府的政治职责。虽然部分投资者 是一次性玩家,但是已经在中国拥有酒店的投资者更 有可能进行经常性投资。 为什么酒店投资对中国投资者具有吸引力 总的来说,中国投资者特别热衷房地产。酒店房地产 对投资者具有吸引力的原因在于其“有形性”,从而具 有直观的安全感,在资金回报上有合理的风险调整资 金,价值增值管理模型提供的额外保证,以及某些情 况下拥有地标性或纪念性建筑所产生的成就感。 投资者的收益预期和要求存在很大的不同。虽然少数 资深机构投资者对市场收益率比较满意,但其他一些 投资者希望获得只有投资性房地产在一般情况下才会 产生的收益率。6-8%的入账无杠杆收益率和/或10- 15%的无杠杆回报率是投资者中常见的回报率门槛。 总体来看,投资者对于收益率未来前景比较乐观。这 种乐观情绪反映了一种普遍的看法,即海外酒店比中 国酒店更具有投资价值。然而,当投资者看到投资对 象的预测财务报表时,这种乐观可能会被或多或少地 浇灭。当发生这种情况时,他们必须重新调整预期, 使得预期与报表数据一致。发达和流动性市场中定价 合理的酒店并不会简单地与中国房地产的一轮牛市 期间累积的美好预期产生共鸣。 中国投资者如何评估酒店的收益和风险 中国酒店买方普遍对收益率采取静态观点。常规情况 下,他们往往关注入账无杠杆收益,但是不太习惯从 整体上考虑价值驱动因素,如地段、运营、资产管理 和(再)融资,如何随着时间创造价值。这种静态观 点通常表明投资者缺乏清晰的投资战略。不足为奇的 是,对于全球门户城市中黄金地段而言,4-6%的入 账无杠杆收益率并不会自动地对买方产生吸引力,所 以在任何投资者宣讲活动中,制定并明确传达一种提 高收益率的针对性战略是非常重要的。 大部分买方倾向于通过采取一种或两种基本回报措 施审查投资。“这家酒店的收益率是多少?”或者“只有 在收益率高于x%的条件下我才会考虑投资”是你经常 会听到的说法。 在大多数情况下,他们所称的“收益率”是指入账无杠 杆收益率或者达到稳定状态后的无杠杆收益,通常 是税后。他们将入账无杠杆收益率作为一项决定性因 素,从而使得买方很容易会因此项收益率不太高而将 某项交易排除在考虑范围之外。 当讨论更加复杂的收益率和估值时,经常会遇到以下 问题:不加区分地使用收益率和回报率,不愿意解决 WWW.THECHINAINVESTOR.COM advantage of low costs of capital; reaping benefits such as increased brand awareness and reputation boost; and undertaking political duties for the government. WHY HOTEL INVESTMENTS ATTRACT CHINESE INVESTORS Hotel real estate appeal to Chinese investors because of their “physicalness” and hence perceived sense of security, reasonable risk-adjusted cash on cash return and the extra layer of assurance from the value-adding management model. The investors’ return expectations and requirements vary extensively. While a small number of sophisticated institutional investors are comfortable with market returns, some others expect what is normally offered only by opportunistic real estate. A going-in yield of 5 percent, and/or an unlevered IRR of 10 percent are common return hurdles seen among the investors. In general, the investors are optimist ic about return prospects. The optimism reflects a widely held conviction that overseas hotels are more investable than those in China. However, such optimism can more or less be dampened when they are presented with pro forma financials of investment targets. When that happens, they end up having to recalibrate their expectations and reconcile them with the numbers. Rationally priced hotels in developed markets do not easily resonate with the rosy expectations built up during the bull run in Chinese real estate. HOW CHINESE INVESTORS ASSESS HOTEL OPTIONS Taking a static view toward returns is prevalent among Chinese hotel buyers. Routinely, they tend to focus on going-in yield, but are not necessarily accustomed to factoring in how value drivers such as location, operation, asset management and (re)financing create value holistically over time. This static view usually indicates lack of a clear investment strategy. Not surprisingly a 4-6 percent going- in yield for prime locations in global gateway cities is not automatically attractive to the buyers, thus developing and articulating a line-of-sight strategy underpinning a higher IRR is essential in any investor pitch. A majority of buyers are inclined to screen investments by using one or two basic return measures. “What is the return of this hotel?”, or “I will consider investing only if the return is above x percent” is what you hear frequently. In most cases, by “return” they mean either going-in unlevered yield, or stabilized unlevered yield. They rely on going-in unlevered yield as a deciding factor so much that an unimpressive one could easily have a deal pulled off the table. When it comes to more sophisticated return and valuation discussions, it is not uncommon to encounter the following: undistinguished use of yield and cap rate, reluctance to address reversionary value due to unpredictability of exit, and the view that exit cap rate will or should be lower/ compressed versus the going-in cap rate. Stakeholders 52