中国开发商在其本国市场中面临上述风险的可能性较 小 , 因为中国房地产市场是一个成长型市场 , 且政府单 方面控制土地供应 、 土地成本 、 授权和竞争性开发 。 在 美国 , 土地销售通常发生在两个私人个体之间 , 取决于 土地的当前授权 , 美国开发商无法承受超支 , 否则他们 会面临建造的投资项目无法产生利润的风险 。
人们常说土地价值是残余价值计算 。 在任何市场中 , 一 旦开发商对某项资产的未来价值做出了假设 , 该开发商 必须反向推算交付项目的成本和风险 , 此后才能确定 其愿意为土地支付的价格 。
为什么上述差异对于从投资角度理解两国市场非常重 要 ? 在美国投资的很多中国投资者本身是开发商 。 了解 美国模型将会有助于中国开发商更好地理解美国市场 中 的 开发 风 险 , 帮 助 投 资 者 更 好 地了解 资 本 结 构 , 帮 助 开发商和投资者找到应扮演的正确角色 。 相反地 , 了解 美国模型也会有助于美国开发商了解中国投资者的目 标和风险偏好 。 与生活中的很多方面一样 , 相互理解往 往是通向共同成功之路 。
在中国 , 对成熟的市场基本要素的理解在不断加深 。 在 个人投资市场中 , 政府正在试图对市场加强监管 , 降低 失控的上涨趋势 。 因此 , 我们可以预计 , 当增值预期降 低时 , 将来价格上涨速度也将会放缓 。 问题在于 , 中国 正处于哪个发展阶段 ? 这一点很难回答 , 在很多程度上 取决于中产阶级的持续增长 、 从农村向城市的人口流 动和总体经济的持续增长 。
随着这些问题逐步厘清 , 中国市场对国内和国外的机 构投资者的吸引力应该会更大 。 其他差异可能需要更 长的时间协调 , 但是随着中国市场不断成熟 , 我们相 信美国市场的很多特征将会开始在中国出现 。 这会在 几年后还是几十年后发生最终将会取决于整套变革措 施 。 届时 , 明智的投资者应该 : 注意上述差异 , 避免受 到本国市场认知的不利影响 , 使用各个市场中的当地 专业能力最大程度地提高财务绩效 。 本文描述了两个 市场之间的部分差异 , 希望通过提出一些问题 , 促使当 前和将来的国际投资者获取必要的专业知识 , 顺利完 成非常复杂的投资过程 。 in any market , makes assumptions of what the future value of an asset will be , he must work backward through the costs and risks of delivering the project , and only then can he determine what he is willing to pay for land .
Why are these differences important to understand from an investing perspective ? Many Chinese investors in the U . S . are developers themselves . Understanding the U . S . model will help Chinese developers better understand development risks in the U . S . markets , investors better understand the capital stack , and both developers and investors find the right role to play . Conversely , it would be helpful for U . S . developers to understand the goals and risk appetite of Chinese investors . Like many areas of life , mutual understanding is often the road to mutual success . An understanding of mature market fundamentals is growing in China .
In the individual investment market , the government is attempting to inject discipline into the market which is lowering runaway appreciation . Consequently , pricing can be expected to moderate in the future as appreciation expectations moderate . The question is , at what point in its development is China ? It is difficult to say ; much depends on the continued growth of a middle class , migration from rural to urban environments and the continued growth of the overall economy . As these become clearer , China markets should become more attractive to institutional investors , both domestic and foreign . Other differences may take longer to reconcile , but as China ’ s real estate market matures , we believe many characteristics of the U . S . markets will begin to appear in China . Whether that happens in years or decades will ultimately depend on a broad package of changes .
Until then , smart investors should : heed the differences discussed above , resist falling prey to home market perceptions , and use local expertise in each market to maximize financial performance . This article illustrates a portion of the differences between the two markets . Hopefully , it raises enough questions to compel current and future international investors to seek the expertise necessary to navigate through what is a very complex investment process .
周楠
周楠先生是 EliteCapital Partners 公司共同创 始人和管理合伙人 。 周先生在企业并购 、 金融 管理和投资方面有着 20 余年的丰富经验 。 创立 EliteCapitalPartners 公司前 , 他曾作为首席财务官 任职于加州两家迅速发展的公司 , 还在一家财富 500 强企业和一家中型市场并购公司中担任过多个企业金融和投资 方面的职位 。 他在南加州大学获得工商管理硕士学位 , 还是城市土 地协会 ( Urban Land Institute ) 多户国家委员会 ( Multifamily national council ) 成员 。
Bill Nan Zhou
Bill Nan Zhou is co-founder and managing partner of Elite Capital Partners . Zhou has over 20 years of merger & acquisition , financial management and investment experience . Prior to Elite , he served as chief financial Officer of two fast growing companies in California , and held various corporate finance and investment positions in a fortune 500 Company and a middle market M & A firm . He earned his MBA degree from University of Southern California . Zhou serves on the multifamily national council of the Urban Land Institute .
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