The Baseball Observer March-April 2017 vol 9 | Page 8

The Baseball Observer - March/April 2017

Black Jack At The Plate - Batters Expectations

by Coach Helke

We’re not talking about gambling, we’re talking about basic strategy. Understanding that there is a basic strategy every time you’re at the plate and knowing that strategy will make you a dangerous hitter and it all starts with the pitch count. But first an analogy to better understand.

BLACK JACK

One of the best analogies would be with the card game Black Jack. Simply put, basic strategy is the optimal way to play blackjack. It has been devised using statistical probabilities to calculate the best possible move in any particular circumstance according to your cards and the dealer's starting card. This has been formulated over several decades of hands being played. The purpose of basic strategy is obviously - to win as often as possible and minimize your losses. Following basic strategy will significantly reduce the edge the “house” has on you (fewer losses).

The basic black jack strategy chart below shows what you should do when certain cards are dealt. Note that there are situations when you take a “hit” (a card) and other situations you don’t. The basic strategy table outlines the best decisions for a player. You know the odds are either with, neutral or against you.

Remember that basic strategy does not guarantee a win but lessens your losses. It is important that you stick with it, even if you have a run of bad results. Players who play according to basic strategy will always outperform those who make their decisions based on gut instinct (guessing) in the long run and should be followed during every decision.

So how does the basic strategy in black jack and card counting apply to baseball?

BASEBALL

Baseball has its own strategy chart for batters. Like in black jack, players who play according to basic strategy will always outperform those who make their decisions based on gut instinct (guessing) in the long run and should be followed during every decision. Card counting can also be applied to baseball. Knowing what pitches a pitcher has thrown, which one he goes to when he needs a strike and observing other tendencies will also increase your odds above the basic batting strategy chart below.

From all the research investigated (fangraphs.com, college pitching coach interviews and articles) it shows that for pitchers to get a head in the count they ideally try to throw two of the first three pitches for strikes.

With that said...

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