The Baseball Observer - March/April 2017
Basic Strategy – Pitch Type Expectations to Pitch Count
GREEN: Odds favor batter getting a good pitch to hit
RED: Odds favor pitcher – batter not getting a good pitch to hit – protect
BLACK: On average neutral for both batter and pitcher
(Note Hitter’s Pitch Expectations: Not an absolute - it’s a probability based on thousands
of at -bats in like situations just like Black Jack)
COUNT
0-0
0-1
0-2
1-0
1-1
1-2
2-0
2-1
2-2
HITTER’S PITCH EXPECTATIONS
57-60% first pitches are thrown for strikes*–if in your Hot Zone
swing!
Pitcher’s choice (stay away from 0-2, but you do have a strike to give). From an interview with David Cone (ex-Yankees pitcher) “If you get a quick strike early in the count, then you can go to off-speed pitches more.”
Pitcher’s choice - Protect the plate (often a waste pitch). You will rarely see a pitcher throw a fastball over the plate on 0–2. Pitcher’s who are up 0–2 in the count are taught not to throw the ball over the plate. Instead they are likely to throw a fastball up high/ outside low, or a breaking ball/ slider away from the plate hoping the batter will chase the bad pitch.
Look Fastball (Tighten your strike zone – make it your pitch).
Usually pitcher’s best pitch (don’t panic) For Greg Maddux, he thought 1-1 was the most important pitch. "2-1 and 1-2 are different worlds. At 2-1, you have to come to the hitter more. At 1-2, you can use all your tricks to "expand the zone." (From the Washington Post – Pay Attention to the count, baseball’s hidden treasure – May 27th, 2010)
Pitcher’s choice - Protect the plate (Expand your strike zone a bit. Be aware the pitcher has pitches to “waste”. See 1-1).
Usually fastball (great hitter’s count–pitcher doesn’t want to go 3-0)
Anticipate pitch the pitcher seems most comfortable throwing for a strike. Doesn't want to go 3-1
Pitcher’s choice (Protect the plate. Treat it as 3-2 count). Batters seem to lay off decent 2-2 pitches only to swing at worse pitches on 3-2. Treat 2-2 as 3-2. Expand your strike zone a bit.
Fastball (pitch probably in hitter’s best zone – but you’re usually taking so that’s why a neutral designation).
Fastball (great hitter’s count).
Typically a fastball - be ready to hit. Pitcher doesn’t want a walk. (But also consider the situation. Ex: If two outs and no one on, anticipate off speed or fastball just out of the strike zone. He has three open bases so a walk doesn’t bother him too much.)
3-1
3-2
3-0
10