Chapter
4:
Context
and
contextual
changes
4.3.2
Climate
change
The
International
Food
Policy
Research
Institute
(IFPRI)
(2011)
climate
change
study
reports
yield
changes
over
time
due
to
climate
change
that
are
projected
to
vary
strongly
across
the
agroecological
zones,
as
well
as
across
major
staple
crops
(millet,
sorghum,
and
wheat).
IFPRI
(2011)
uses
two
climate
models,
CSIRO
and
MIROC,
for
the
development
of
its
climate
scenarios
for
the
year
2050
in
relation
to
the
2000
baseline.
The
two
models
come
with
different
results
for
temperature
and
rainfall
scenarios
(the
main
climatic
variables).
The
CSIRO
scenario
shows
maximum
increase
of
1.7°C
for
the
maximum
temperatures
and
a
maximum
increase
of
2.3°C
for
the
average
temperatures.
The
MIROC
model
shows
much
greater
variability
for
both
minimum
and
maximum
temperatures
which
are
projected
to
rise
above
3°C.
Based
on
their
climatic
model,
Haidera
et
al.
(2011)
conclude
that
current
and
predicted
patterns
of
water
consumption
will
soon
fully
deplete
available
resources
in
Yemen.
Current
and
predicted
human
consumption
patterns
are
a
bigger
driver
of
vulnerability
than
climate
change.
In
the
absence
of
new
strategies
to
bring
water
supply
and
demand
patterns
into
balance,
results
for
all
three
case
studies
(Sana’a,
Aden
and
Sa’ada)
suggest
the
pressing
water
crisis
will
only
worsen
(Haidera
et
al.,
2011).
As
also
mentioned
by
IFPRI
(2011),
this
means
that
especially
in
certain
regions
of
Yemen
climate
change
or
variability
can
have
a
dramatic
impact
in
the
available
water
resources
(MAI,
2012).
As
Yemen
is
a
food
(and
virtual
water)
importing
country
and
climate
change
is
expected
to
increase
food
prices
globally
it
will
affect
Yemeni
people
in
multiple
ways,
because
at
the
same
time
when
food
prices
increase
it
will
be
an
extra
incentive
to
invest
in
agricultural
production.
Agricultural
productions
and
farmers
will
be
affected
by
climate
change
or
climate
variability
(mostly
warmer
temperatures
and
more
unpredictable
rainfall
from
heavier
showers).
If
water
is
available
(and
the
trend
is
negative),
higher
temperatures
can
increase
production,
under
the
optimistic
scenario
(hot
and
wet)
crop
production
can
increase
by
10
percent;
under
the
pessimistic
scenario
however
(hot
and
dry)
it
can
go
down
by
more
than
10
percent
(MetaMeta
Research
and
PAN
Yemen
Consult,
2013).
4.3.2
Water
availability
Yemen
ranks
7th
on
the
Water
Stress
Index
(Maplecroft,
2011).
The
Government
recognizes
the
water
scarcity
situation
and,
in
its
National
Water
Strategy,
ranks
water
only
second
to
national
security
(MetaMeta
Research
and
PAN
Yemen
Consult
2013).
Nevertheless,
this
priority
in
rhetoric
does
not
seem
to
have
been
translated
into
sound
water
management
practices,
as
will
be
further
explained
later
in
the
section.
Groundwater
irrigated
areas
increased
from
37,000ha
in
1970
to
407,000ha
in
2004,
while
rainfed
areas
shrunk
from
1,200,000ha
to
460,000ha
in
the
same
period
(RoY,
2005).
While
4
to
15
percent
water
saving
in
irrigated
agriculture
can
be
realized
by
improved
irrigation
methods,
a
dramatic
intervention
is
required
to
reverse
the
increase
in
agricultural
water
consumption
(MetaMeta
Research
and
PAN
Yemen
Consult,
2013).
Groundwater
is
currently
the
key
water
resource
in
Yemen,
but
is
being
overexploited.
The
rate
of
pumping
exceeds
the
rate
of
recharge
and
the
groundwater
levels
of
basins
decline
annually
on
average
by
1
to
4
meters.
Farmers
near
Sana’a
in
Yemen
have
deepened
their
wells
over
50
meters
over
the
past
decades,
while
the
amount
of
water
they
can
extract
has
dropped
by
two-‐thirds
(UNDP,
2006).
This
raises
the
cost
of
pumping
and,
in
certain
cases,
causes
a
deterioration
of
groundwater
quality
including
seawater
intrusion
in
the
coastal
plain
areas.
The
declining
water
table
has
implications
for
the
depth
of
wells
required
to
extract
water
and
the
risk
of
salt
intrusion
(UNDP,
2006;
MAI,
2012).
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