Test Drive | Page 82

Chapter  4:  Context  and  contextual  changes       Figure  4.11:  Estimated  trends  of  sanitation  coverage  in  Yemen   Source:  WHO/UNICEF,  2013     4.3    Physical  dimension   Water  scarcity  is  regarded  as  one  of  the  drivers  of  conflict;  an  increase  in  scarcity  will  result,  therefore,  in  an   increase  in  (potential)  conflict.  Biophysical  processes  affect  the  water  resources  as  changing  climatic  conditions   (rainfall/recharge)   will   positively   or   negatively   affect   the   available   water   resources.   Conflict   regarding   water   resources   within   agricultural   populations,   and   urban   residents,   and   between   different   uses   will   affect   institutions   and   policies   directed   at   water   resources   management.   It   is   likely   that   an   increase   in   (potential)   conflict   (resulting   from   an   increase   in   water   demand)   will   result   in   increasing   water   resource   flows   to   both   agriculture  and  urban  residents  to  reduce  conflicts  over  water.  In  this  way,  an  increase  in  (potential)  conflicts   will  negatively  affect  the  available  water  resources  (as  conflict  hypothetically  can  be  settled  by  increased  water   allocation),  this  can  be  aggravated  due  to  changing  climatic  and  biophysical  processes.  Increase  in  water  use   also  causes  higher  polluted  return  flows,  possibly  reducing  the  available  water  supply  for  downstream  users.   4.3.1  Climatic  characteristics     Water   scarcity   is   severe   in   Yemen.   Yemen   has   a   semi-­‐arid   to   arid   climate   with   widely   varying   rainfall   across   different  regions,  as  shown  in  figure  4.12  (MetaMeta  Research  and  PAN  Yemen  Consult  2013).  In  addition  to   rainwater,   Yemen   also   relies   on   groundwater   and   (spate)   floods   for   its   water   supply.   Figure   4.13   shows   the   annual  temperature  and  rainfall  distribution  in  the  three  case  study  areas.  Coastal  areas  (such  as  Al  Hudaydah)   The Political Economy in Yemen of Water Management: Conflict Analysis and Recommendations  69  of  241