Test Drive | Page 74

Chapter  4:  Context  and  contextual  changes     (Murray,   2013).   Therefore,   previously   marginalized   groups   such   as   women   and   youth,   including   those   who   helped  bring  about  change,  are  not  included  in  a  proper  manner  (for  example,  being  given  sufficient  seats  or   informed   in   a   timely   manner)   to   participate   in   decision-­‐making   under   the   post-­‐Saleh   government   (Murray,   2013).  In  addition,  the  extent  to  which  the  resulting  recommen dations  will  be  implemented  is  still  uncertain,   as   there   may   be   little   space   left   for   new   players   when   established   political   parties   look   set   to   dominate   the   next  parliament  and  fill  the  power  vacuum  (Hill  et  al.,  2013).   4.2    Socio-­‐economic  dimension   4.2.1    Yemeni  economy   Being   the   poorest   country   of   the   Middle   East,   Yemen   is   dependent   on   small   oil   reserves,   agricultural   and   fishery  exports,  and  development  aid  to  sustain  its  economy.  The  Yemeni  economy  suffered  from  its  support   for  Iraq  during  the  first  Gulf  War  (1990-­‐1991).  Saudi  Arabia  expelled  1  million  Yemeni  workers,  and  together   with   Kuwait   it   reduced   its   economic   aid.   The   decline   in   remittances   from   Yemeni   expat   workers   had   an   enormous  impact  on  its  economy.  Since  mid-­‐1990s,  Yemen  has  been  relying  on  multilateral  development  aid   to   sustain   its   economy   (WFP,   2009).   Due   to   its   dependency   on   this   aid,   the   government   of   Yemen   is   introducing  economic  reforms  aimed  at  reducing  this  dependency,  as  well  as  a  result  of  aid  regulations.  Yemen   also   needs   to   change   its   economy   because   of   its   current   dependency   on   the   oil   market,   which   leaves   the   national  budget  vulnerable  to  the  volatility  of  the  international  oil  prices,  while  knowing  at  the  same  time  that   under  the  current  rate  of  production  the  oil  reserves  will  not  last  beyond  2020  (EC,  2006;  WFP,  2009).       As   shown   in   Figure   4.1,   Yemen’s   GDP   growth   rate   remained   on   average   3   to   4   percent   between   2004   and   2010,  with  a  sudden  drop  of  15  percent  in  2011.  It  was  slowly  recovering  again  in  2012  at  2  percent.  GNP  per   capita  at  purchasing  power  parity  had  been  increasing  steadily  until  2011  and  recovered  slightly  in  2012  (see   Figure  4.2).  The  coincidence  of  the  dips  in  GDP  growth  rate  and  GNP  per  capita  during  the  revolution  in  2011   shows   its   effect   on   the   Yemeni   economy.   Both   state   resources   and   human   resources/work   force   have   been   diverted  from  economic  development  to  the  political  developments  at  the  time,  and  economic  activities  in  key   sectors  were  likely  disrupted.       Figure  4.1:  Annual  GDP  growth  rate  in  Yemen         Source:  World  Bank   The Political Economy in Yemen of Water Management: Conflict Analysis and Recommendations  61  of  241