Super Restoration Q1 2018 SourceMagazine_Jan_2018_DIGITAL | Page 5

How Hurricane Maria Intensified
On Sunday, the NHC projected that Maria would reach Category 3 wind speeds of 115 mph, but by Monday wind speeds
actually reached Category 5 level of 145 mph. While Category 3 winds can cause severe property damage, Category 5 winds
are powerful enough to destroy homes in their entirety and leave the area uninhabitable for weeks or months. This forecast
error was rare, but the severity of the ensuing damage was immense.
Forecasters saw all the indicators, but forecasting models repeatedly underestimated how much these factors would
increase intensification. Because rapid intensification is so rare, forecasting models are not as effective at predicting how
quickly hurricanes will intensify. When the storm has a compact core like Maria, it’s even harder for forecasting models to
pin down intensification. One forecasting model indicated that intensification was the less likely outcome, but the chance of
intensification occurring was still higher than normal.
How Hurricane Harvey Intensified
Harvey caught forecasters off-guard because of how it fast it developed in just 60 hours, seemingly out of thin air. The first
forecast came just two days before landfall, predicting a Category 1 with maximum wind speeds of 75 mph. By the time
Harvey was about to make landfall on Aug. 25, it was a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of 130 mph. A 48-hour forecast
error of 55 mph on wind speeds only happens 5 percent of time.
Learning from Hurricane Intensification
Since 2012, the average forecast error for wind speeds had only been around 13 mph. However, the 2017 hurricane season
featured a series of four storms that each experienced rapid intensification, historically a rare event. In addition, we learned
how ineffective some of the forecasters, forecasting models and municipalities can be at preparing the public for landfall.
We’ve learned to be more mindful of the forecasts and evacuation warnings, how to respond in a state of emergency and how
long the road to recovery and rebuilding our lives and communities can be. With most major cities located on the coasts, and
climate and sea temperatures steadily increasing, we should be better prepared to encounter the devastation rapid hurricane
intensification will bring again in our lifetime.
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