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Rapid Intensification in the 2017 Hurricane Season
A unique theme was prominent for the 2017 hurricane season in the United States . Within a short time frame , hurricanes Harvey , Irma , Jose and Maria underwent rapid intensification and gained substantial amounts of power just before making landfall . This last-minute hurricane intensification was the leading factor that made these powerful storms so devastating to the public .
Understanding Hurricane Intensification
Experts believe one of the leading indicators of rapid hurricane intensification is when the eye of the storm begins to contract inward . According to the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center , the rapid intensification displayed with these four storms only occurs in 5 percent of all forecasts . Where hurricanes are concerned , the worst-case scenarios are often a result of rapid intensification . Rapid hurricane intensification leaves authorities with little time to warn the public or prepare sufficiently .
On a day-to-day basis , hurricane intensification is very hard for experts to predict . According to the National Hurricane Center , rapid hurricane intensification occurs when the wind speed of the storm increases by at least 35 mph within 24 hours . Each of the aforementioned storms during the 2017 hurricane season easily exceeded the minimum standard for rapid intensification .
2017 Hurricane Timeline
Harvey was recorded as a Category 1 hurricane with wind speeds reaching 85 mph on Aug . 24 . By the time it reached landfall a day later , the hurricane had developed into a Category 4 with 130 mph wind speeds . On Sept . 4 , Irma advanced from a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph wind speeds into a strong Category 5 with 180 mph wind speeds within 24 hours .
Three days after Irma , Jose only took one day to develop from Category 1 with 90 mph wind speeds into a strong Category 4 with 150 mph wind speeds . Days later , Maria actually set a record by developing from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in only two and a half days . The storm advanced from a Category 1 to a Category 4 level hurricane in only 12 hours .
Causes of Hurricane Intensification
While experts are still studying to understand hurricane intensification , they have determined that favorable hurricane conditions seem to increase the level of intensification . Some factors contributing to intensification include deep waters , moisture in the atmosphere , warm waters and minimal headwinds disrupting the storm . During the 2017 season , the Caribbean Sea has served as a favorable environment for hurricane development .
Scientists say rapid intensification is likely to occur when there is a large difference between the potential intensity of the hurricane and its actual intensity . The warm waters and favorable environment increase the potential intensity of the hurricane . This is compounded by the fact that the storm has plenty of headroom to intensify since there ’ s nothing in the path to disrupt its development . Even with this knowledge , experts still struggle with pinpointing when intensification will actually occur .
Studying Hurricane Intensification
In 2015 , Columbia researchers determined that most hurricanes can either be classified as having a relatively lower intensity or having much higher intensity . In addition , they also concluded that nearly 80 percent of the high intensity hurricanes display some degree of rapid intensification . There are experts who believe that rapid hurricane intensification could be exasperated in warmer climates , but there is not enough data available yet to prove that it ’ s true .
A drop in the central pressure of the hurricane is one of the tell-tale signs that rapid intensification is about to occur . The path to intensification is not steady , often times it slows before escalating again . Aside from the warmer sea temperatures , hurricane intensification in storms like Harvey is indicated by upper-air outflow expansion and the low-shear environment . With many of the storms in 2017 , hurricane victims bore the brunt of a rapid intensification that occurred overnight , right before landfall .
While predicting hurricane intensification is still an educated guess at best , there have already been around two dozen papers published on the subject matter by the American Meteorological Society alone . One of the worst 24-hour hurricane forecasts in the past 5 years was for the wind speeds anticipated for Maria . The hurricane progressed from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in just 15 hours , exceeding the NHC ’ s intensification projections .
SUPER RESTORATION SERVICE CO . | 1701 NW 87TH AVE # 200 | MIAMI , FL 33172 4