G. Evaluating the Impact of Economic Development on Stability (Lesson #2615)
Observation.
As part of a U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded research grant, the non-
governmental organization Mercy Corps implemented monitoring and evaluation (M&E) in three of
their programs in Uganda, Indonesia, and Ethiopia, in order to examine the relationship between
economic development and stability.
Discussion.
Research over the past decades has indicated that countries with slow economic growth and low per
capita income are more likely to experience political instability and violence. However, the exact causal
mechanisms linking poverty and conflict have been less apparent. Many organizations have
implemented economic programs in conflict and ‘post-conflict’ areas, assuming that such programs
will both reduce poverty and contribute to conflict management. USAID decided to test this
assumption in order to design more effective programming. So, as subcomponent of the QED-
managed Knowledge Driven Microenterprise Development (KDMD) project, USAID offered
research grants to five organizations in order to examine the relationship between economic
development and stability.
As one of the chosen five organizations, Mercy Corps implemented the USAID research grant from
July 2009 to December 2010 through their research project the “Evaluation and Assessment of Poverty
and Conflict Interventions” (EAPC). The purpose of the EAPC project was to 1) explore the causal
relationships between conflict and poverty in order to discover which interventions most effectively
address this relationship, and 2) develop and test indicators and data collection tools that measure
program impact. The EAPC research project was composed of three main stages: 1) articulating
theories of change that informed Mercy Corps programming, 2) developing indicators and data
collection tools, and 3) running field tests in Mercy Corps programs in three countries to examine the
relationship between economic variables and stability.
Through the EAPC, Mercy Corps identified three main theories of change for their peacebuilding and
economic development programming. (A theory of change is an “If – then –” statement that explicitly
explains how intervention activities would bring about the type of change that a program aims to
achieve.) Mercy Corps’ primary theories of change included (Vaughan, 2011, p.4):
“1. If we build economic relationships across lines of division, then we will promote stability
by demonstrating tangible, concrete benefits to cooperation.
2. If we strengthen livelihoods opportunities in high-risk regions and/or for high-risk
populations, then we will promote stability by reducing competition for scarce economic
resources.
3. If we use a community mobilization approach to economic development, then we will
promote stability by encouraging community self-reliance and by building productive
relationships to local government.”
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