The key hope, even of the most skeptical, is that the behavior of the vast private sector, not to mention the most motivated individuals, from mayors to councilmen and their many constituents will be in some fashion permanently altered. If this works, no matter how skeptical any Republican Congress or future president of the United States or any other nation might be, noxious greenhouse gases might well be reined in from the ground up, if not regulated from the top down. Such behavior could neutralize any potential impact from a failure of action from governmental bodies with political agendas at odds with or skeptical of an agenda to prevent global warming.
There is certainly no lack of interest groups with such a stake. At the same time, any number of different actions appear essential if the COP21 agreement is to succeed in its ambitious goal of climate control. First, and perhaps paramount, there’s the means to finance this dash to the goal line—$100 billion a year in transfers from the wealthy nations to the deprived. Then there’s the policing of nearly 200 national plans of attack, some more ambitious than others, to make sure each is having the desired impact of reducing the amount of greenhouse gases being pumped out into the atmosphere, and restraining the rise in global temperatures.
Of course, scientists who parsed the sum total of these national plans, 185 of them filed before the conference barely got underway, found that even if they were followed strictly the temperature increases that were likely to result could far exceed the earth’s ability to withstand them. The result would likely be, before the end of the next decade, the utter disappearance beneath rising sea levels of entire low-lying island nations from the Caribbean to the South Pacific, the eradication of important glaciers at both poles and in between, not to mention intensifying horrific weather conditions from droughts to el niños. In short, the world must do better.
This was the hope of the most optimistic who sat through the night from Saturday to Sunday proclaiming their support for the document they’d just approved. Now the hard work must begin. And more than ever before, the world will be watching.
World Policy was first site of publication of this piece by David A. Andelman. See the original at worldpolicy.org/blog/2015/12/13/back-future-our-planet. Andelman, editor emeritus of World Policy Journal, is a member of the board of contributors of USA Today and author of A Shattered Peace: Versailles 1919 and the Price We Pay Today.
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