Senwes Scenario October / November 2017 | Page 20

•••• T RADE N E W S Increase earnings from maize through FARM FEEDLOT Table 1: Budgeted gross margins at a net maize price of R1 700 per ton. THE PROFITABLE CULTIVATION OF MAIZE IS UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO INCREASED SUPPLY LEVELS AND EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL NOT CHANGE DURING THE 2017/18 PRODUCTION SEASON. JOHAN DU TOIT MANAGER: SENWES AGRI-ECONOMIC SERVICES M aize cultivation forms the main crop in the production systems of most summer grain producers (>65%). A drastic downscaling is not always practically possible and the alternative application of at least a portion of the crop should be investigated. The finishing off of weaners in a typical farm feedlot situation potentially offers such an alterna­ tive for crop farmers with cattle farming interests. According to the Senwes Agri-Economic Ser­ vices Bureau Data, the average overhead (fixed) production costs, depending on the area, amount to between R600/ha (Southern Free State and Northwest) and R1 000/ha (Western and North­ ern Free State). A farming extension in respect of which the gross margin is lower than indicated above, will therefore not be able to make a suffi­ cient contribution to the payment of fixed pro­ duction costs and other farming expenses such as instalment payments and private expenditure. According to the information in Table 1, the required gross margins at the planning assump­ tions referred to in the different areas would seem to be unlikely, which justifies the consideration of an alternative. Based on the information which was available at the time of the writing of this article, the reali­ sation of the required net break-even maize price will be difficult. > CONTINUED ON PAGE 18 18 OCT/NOV 2017 • SENWES Scenario Southern Free State Western Free State Northwest 3.5* 4.5 3.5 Planning yield (t/ha) Rand per hectare Gross income 5 950 7 650 5 950 Direct production cost 5 385 6 780 5 661 565 870 289 Gross margin (R/ha) *Please note that the long-term average maize yield for the Southern Free State amounts to less than 3t/ha according to Senwes Bureau Data. Table 2: Technical data (farm feedlot) Starting mass (kg) 235 Ending mass (kg) 438 Standing period (days) 110 Final carcass mass (Kg) 259 Feed intake as % of average mass 3% % Maize in ration 73% Weaner price (R/kg) 30.00 Carcass price (R/kg) 45.00 Dressing (%) 59% Table 3: Economic analysis (farm feedlot) R/Animal Ending value 11 642 Starting value 7 050 Cost of feed * 2 382 Processing and mortality 501 Transport costs 120 Financing costs 350 Margin above specified costs (R/calf ) 1 239 Price margin (1 473) Feed margin 3 336 *Maize at opportunity cost (R1 700/t as derived from average Jul/Sept/Dec 2018 Safex prices) Table 4: Calculated value addition to maize by farm feedlot Southern Western Free State Free State Northwest Planned yield (t/ha) 3.5 4.5 3.5 Number of calves per hectare 4.33 5.59 4.34 Gross margin (R/ha) 5 331 6 885 5 349 Margin realised per ton of maize 1 523 1 530 1 528 Required net break-even maize price (R/t) 2 420 2 368 2 383 SAFEX yellow maize prices (R/t) as at 7/9/17 for: Jul 8 R2 105 Sep 8 R2 147 Des 8 R2 236 Value addition