CO ME R A IN , CO ME SHIN E
A comparison between the 1991/92 and the 2015/16 seasons and the
long term rainfall experienced in the traditional Senwes area.
This map indicates the cumulative rainfall for the season as long-term
percentage. When this article was written, no area had received more
than the long-term cumulative rainfall as at 22 January. However, small
parts of the area have received good rain. The central western area of the
traditional Senwes area had received less than 30% of the long-term rainfall. Some areas could not even plant 10% of the long-term maize area.
It is a concern, however, that the
SOI-value is decreasing further,
-21 at present, which could mean
that the El Niño-episode is abating
slower than what we are hoping
for.
SUMMARY AND
CONCLUSION:
The first half of the 2015/16
season was not very positive.
Notwithstanding predictions by
various meteorological associations
that a very dry and hot first part
of the summer season would be
experienced by the western part
of South Africa, we hoped that it
would not materialise. In most areas planned planting did not take
place - this was the most significant variance in respect of planned
maize planting and planting
which actually materialised since
1926, when reasonably accurate
•••
A COMPARISON BETWEEN
THE 1991/92 SEASON AND
THIS SEASON:
The 1991/92 season is known
as the worst season in terns of
rainfall over the past century.
Exceptionally poor maize yields
realised, such as the average 0,55
ton/ha in the Senwes area and
an average of 0.72 ton/ha for
South Africa as a whole. Rainfall for the 1991/92 season was
301 mm in total for the entire
season. The cumulative seasonal
rainfall, namely from 1 July to
22 January 1992, was 228 mm
for the 1991/92 season, compared to 186 mm for the current
season. The pre-season period of
this season was even drier than
the worst season experienced in
100 years. Producers were able
to undertake normal plantings
during the 1991/92 season, but
the crops were parched. During
the current season, producers in
a number of districts could plant
almost no maize. However, it is
encouraging to note that during
the 1991/92 season rain started
to decrease as from December
1991, while rainfall started to increase from December 2015. The
graph demonstrates the above, as
well as the long-term rainfall in
the Senwes area.
documentation of areas planted in
South Africa started.
Significantly lower than average
rainfall has occurred thus far for
the first part of the season. However, it started to rain in many areas
since 10 January and producers
were able to plant, particularly
sunflower.
We hope and trust that the
good rain will continue for the rest
of the season.
SENWES Scenario • Feb/Mar 2016
41