Senwes Scenario December 2018 / January 2019 | Page 36

MARKETS
The seasonal
movements of grain
The planting season is underway and the first hedging
decisions are being taken
Table 1: White maize input costs
Date calculated: 2018/10/18
Droëland: Jaar-op-Jaar - Bothaville
PRODUKPRYS (R/ton)
BEPLANNINGSOPBRENGS (ton/ha)
By Hansie Swanepoel
Senwes Grainlink Market Analist
A
s mentioned in previous arti-
cles, it is of the utmost impor-
tance to take the profitability
of a hedging decision into
account as point of departure. For this
reason we will be looking at the direct
input costs of various crops. The historic
seasonal price movement of white maize
and sunflower is also analysed to optimise
the timing of hedging.
INPUT COSTS
It is evident from table 1-3 that crops
can be planted profitably this season,
measured against current prices at the
time of the writing of this article. In order
to ensure profitability, hedging has to be
done. The hedging can be done optimally
by doing it at certain seasonal peaks.
SEASONAL TRENDS
Patterns form over years which clearly
indicate periods during which hedging
can probably be done at better levels
than during other times. In order to iden-
34
BRUTO PRODUKINKOMSTE (BPI) (R/ha)
A: GESPESIFISEERDE KOSTE (R/ha)
R2 000
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
9 000 10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000
Saad 1 349 1 349 1 349 1 471 1 471 1 471 1 471 1 471
Kalk 193 215 236 258 279 301 322 344
Kunsmis
Onkruiddoders
Plaagdoders
Brandstof
Reparasies
Smeermiddels
2 577
917
50
2 893
917
50
3 247
917
50
3 563
917
50
3 839
917
50
4 116
917
50
4 555
917
50
1 082 1 103 1 170 1 191 1 213 1 234 1 256
54 55 58 60 61 62 63
744
748
801
804
807
811
814
4 931
917
50
1 277
817
64
A: TOTAAL GESPESIFISEERDE KOSTE
(R/ha) 6 966 7 329 7 828 8 313 8 637 8 961 9 448 9 871
B: R/Ton Sakprys benodig 1 548 1 466 1 423 1 386 1 329 1 280 1 260 1 234
Wins (per hektaar) 2 034 2 671 3 172 3 687 4 363 5 039 5 552 6 129
Table 2: Sunflower input costs
Date calculated: 2018/10/18
Droëland: Jaar-op-Jaar - Bothaville
PRODUKPRYS (R/ton)
R4 300
BEPLANNINGSOPBRENGS (ton/ha) 1,25 1,5 1,75
BRUTO PRODUKINKOMSTE (BPI) (R/ha) 5 375 6 450 7 525
A: GESPESIFISEERDE KOSTE (R/ha)
Saad
308
369
431
2
2,25
8 600
492
2,5
2,75
3
9 675 10 750 11 825 12 900
554
615
615
615
Kunsmis 802 1 182 1 351 1 512 1 764 2 016 2 268 2 521
Onkruiddoders 457 457 457 457 457 457 457 457
Kalk
86
129
Plaagdoders 597 Brandstof 838 848 871
42 42 44
Saadbehandeling
Reparasies
Smeermiddels
85
525
597
150
92
527
597
99
543
172
597
105
882
545
44
193
597
105
893
547
45
215
597
109
904
548
45
236
597
109
914
550
46
258
597
119
925
552
46
A: TOTAAL GESPESIFISEERDE KOSTE
(R/ha) 3 739 4 244 4 543 4 807 5 155 5 506 5 793 6 089
B: R/Ton Sakprys benodig 2 991 2 829 2 596 2 403 2 291 2 202 2 106 2 030
Wins (per hektaar) 1 636 2 206 2 982 3 793 4 520 5 244 6 032 6 811
SENWES SCENARIO | TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION 2018