Senwes Scenario December 2017 - March 2018 | Page 29

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G R A IN MA RKE T PR O SPE CT S • •
Table 1: The calculated export parity of South African white maize to Southeast
Asia.
Maize origin: Randfontein Load cost advantage
Delivery point: Southeast Asia Basis CBT to FOB ($/t)
Date: 27 October 2017 Quality premium:
line stock level, but there is still
some interest in exports. At this
stage exports have slowed down, but
it will hopefully pick up again.
USA-$11
$22
$0
USA CBT yellow maize ($/bu)
Exhange
rate
R/$
3,30 3,40 3,50 3,60 3,70 3,80 3,90 4,00
12,00 R1 409 R1 456 R1 504 R1 551 R1 598 R1 645 R1 693 R1 740
12,50 R1 492 R1 542 R1 679 R1 640 R1 689 R1 739 R1 788 R1 873
13,00 R1 576 R1 627 R1 678 R1 729 R1 780 R1 832 R2 883 R1 934
13,50 R1 659 R1 712 R1 765 R1 818 R1 871 R1 925 R2 978 R2 031
14,00 R1 742 R1 797 R1 852 R1 907 R1 963 R2 018 R2 073 R2 128
14,50 R1 882 R1 882 R1 939 R1 997 R2 054 R2 111 R2 168 R2 225
15,00 R1 968 R1 934 R2 027 R2 086 R2 145 R2 204 R2 263 R2 322
mately 16 weeks' consumption.
White maize exports are slow and
we are nowhere near the required
cumulative exports to attain the
pipeline stock level. When this
level is attained, a reasonable
level of price support can usually
be seen. The South Asian coun-
tries are not really interested in
importing white maize for animal
feed purposes. The conversion to
be done in their factories is too
expensive and the availability of
white maize is too sporadic.
Yellow maize exports are
nowhere near the required pipe-
Graph 2. Progress with white maize eports from South Africa: 2017/18.
2018/19 marketing year
The planting intentions as reported
by the NCEC on 26 October, we re
higher than expected by traders
and speculator. The total expected
decrease in the area to be planted
(maize) is a mere 6%. A moderate
La Niña-type season is expected,
which is normally characterised by
higher than the running five-year
average yields, will probably result
in higher carry-over stock levels,
unless exports gain further momen-
tum. The white and yellow maize
price will probably be in the region
of the calculated export parity level
for a longer than desired period of
time. Producers will have to opti-
mise their expected yields.
Wheat
The NCEC adjusted the wheat crop
downwards by approximately 60
000 tons in its third estimate. We
will have to import more and our
price will probably be on the level
of the cheapest wheat which can
be imported. The weaker rand may
increase the calculated import levy
even further, which could support
the wheat price in the foreseeable
future. The international price of
wheat decreased significantly over
the past few weeks, which put a
damper on our wheat price as well.
Oilseed complex:
Graph 3. Progress with yellow maize exports from South Africa: 2017/18.
Sunflower and soybeans
The calculated sunflower and
soybean carry-over stock levels
increased to a reasonable extent after
the recent harvest and processors are
happy to be the owners of these two
commodities. The sunflower price
in particular is below the calculated
export parity level. There are enqui-
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SENWES Scenario • DEC 2017-MAR 2018
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