Senwes Scenario December 2016 / January 2017 | Page 42

••••

G RAI N M AR K E T P R O S P E C T S

November 2016
> CONTINUED FROM PAGE 39
marketing plan. Future prices also
reflect the market sentiment in
respect of the coming season. It is
said in the market that the news
is already discounted in the price.
The May and July prices of white
maize form between the calculated import and export parity.
The market is discounting a large
white maize crop.
CLIMATE
Most weather prediction services
predict a fair season to come, but
not without uncertainties, which
has an effect on the Safex price.
The price is very sensitive for any
changes in the prospects for the
season.
OILSEED COMPLEX:
Sunflower and soybeans
Both sunflower and soybeans have
to be imported this marketing
year and the price will form on
the calculated derived import
parity of the two crops. There
have been huge price differences
between sunflower and soybeans
since February this year. The
demand for the two commodities
by oil presses, the availability of

Graph 4. The cash price movement of white maize on Safex.

seed and the international carry-over stock of the two oilseeds
play a huge role in this regard.
Based on the planting intentions,
soybeans will probably have to
be imported during the 2017/18
marketing year. The price of soybeans received support from the
price of sunflower.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
We are on the eve of the new
season and we have low carry-over
stock levels of particularly white
maize. The availability and price
of white maize in the global mar-

ket and the climate over the next
few weeks could change the Safex
price significantly.
Rumours that certain American
GM-white maize cultivars could
possibly be approved for export
purposes, resulted in pressure on
the white maize price during the
last two months.
Depending on the rainfall over
the next two months, commodity
prices could be very volatile. Price
prospects in respect of soybeans
for the coming season, based on
the planting intentions, are reasonably positive.

Graph 5. Derived import and export parities for white maize (USA corn) Safex Randfontein-based.

40

DEC 2016/JAN 2017 • SENWES Scenario