Graph 4 . The rand / dollar exchange rate movement .
COLUMN
import parity price is calculated is therefore relatively low . The price of American yellow corn decreased drastically over the past few days . The favourable growth conditions in the corn belt , the stronger dollar and the uncertainty around the outcome of the British referendum were the most important reasons . It is once again a case of wait and see what happens . Various large grain traders are of the opinion that the decline had been too severe and that an adjustment can be expected . Graph 3 reflects the price movement over the past 18 months .
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Graph 5 . The cash price movement of white maize on Safex ( R / ton ).
during the past week . After the results of the British referendum became known , the price decreased to $ 49 per barrel . World markets are currently uncertain about the effect of Britain ' s exit from the European Union . It is certain , however , that most ethanol plants will be able to make a profit with a crude oil price of above $ 335 / barrel . It supports the international maize price to some extent .
International grain and oil seed situation Various factors affect the consumption of grain and oil seeds and at this stage the carry-over stock levels of most grains and oil seeds in the world are high . Graph 2 reflects the world carry-over stock of maize , following the latest USDA supply and demand report . Chances are good that the American crop will be even higher than indicated in the report from which the data was obtained . It could increase the carry-over stock as percentage of consumption even further . It is a known fact that , when the calculated carry-over stock of a commodity as percentage of consumption is higher than 15 %, the market relaxes and the price of the commodity decreases . The calculated carry-over stock as a percentage of consumption in respect of wheat is 22,1 %, that of soybeans 20,3 % and that of wheat 36,1 %.
It puts the prices of all the most important food commodities in the world under pressure . The basis on which the South African
Current USA climate When the international weather prediction services predict a La Niña-type season , countries such as Brazil , Indonesia , South Africa and Australia sigh a sigh of relief , since this type of season is usually characterised by wetter than normal conditions and better than normal yields . In the case of the USA a La Niña-type season usually goes hand in hand with excessively wet conditions in some of the northern states and dryer than normal conditions in the southern states . An analysis of the maize yields in the USA since the 1970 season is reflected in the table below . There were 13 El Niño , 16 La Niña and 15 normal seasons over the past 43 years . The La Niñatype seasons realised on average yields of only 3,1 % lower than the long-term average . This means that a La Niña-type season , which is predicted for the coming season , should not have a material impact
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Table 1 . The effect of an El Niño , La Niña and neutral type of season on the American maize yields .
Type of season El Niño La Niña Neutral Average yield ( ton / ha ) 7,78 7,40 7,78 No . of occurrences 13 16 15 % of an average yield 101,7 % 96,9 % 101,8 %
SENWES Scenario • AUG / SEP 2016
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