CO ME RA IN , CO ME SHIN E
February 2016 rainfall as % of the longterm average
•••
It looks as though El Niño is busy
losing its grip. The weekly NINO
3.4 index is weakening, quite dramatically so over the past week.
Sea temperatures in the Nino3-4
area are cooling down, after having
reached the highest levels in human memory.
The map above reflects the February 2016 rainfall as percentage
of the long-term February rainfall.
Very little rain was received
over the traditional Senwes area
during February 2016. However,
Koppies, Vredefort and Sasolburg received good rain. Due to
the late season, February is criti-
cal since pollination of the maize
has to take place. We know that
maize is at its most vulnerable
when pollination has to take
place and adequate moisture
is required at this stage. Maize
yields in particularly the western
areas will be under huge pressure
should adequate moisture not be
available.
Rainfall for the period 1 July 2015 to 29 February 2016 as % of the
longterm average
The cumulative rainfall for the
2015/2016 season, namely 1 July
to 29 February 2016, is indicated
in the map above. The problem
areas are the Wesselsbron, Bultfon
tein, Hoopstad and Theunissen
districts. These districts have
received one third of the seasonal
rainfall. The dry season follows on
a previous dry season. We trust
that good rain will be received
in time. A lot of sunflower was
planted late in the season and since
the plants are still young, a lot of
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
We hoped that the predicted El
Niño would pass unnoticed, as in
the 1997/98 season. However, this
did not happen and it followed the
same pattern as in the 1963/64,
1972/73, 1983/84, 1991/92 and
2006/07 seasons, which were
strong El Niño-type seasons. It
resulted in severe droughts in particularly the western parts of the
summer rainfall area. We hope,
pray and trust that we will be rid
of the El Niño-ghost for the following number of years.
moisture is needed to complete
the production process. Many
fields lie f [