Retail Appointment July 2017 TRAP_July 2017_DigitalEdition | Page 9

orgive me, but I haven’t noticed any bunting
out on the streets, nor have there been any
street parties. In fact, I think many of us are
weary of the whole thing and whether we stay or go,
we would just like it sorted. It has triggered a
process that will probably involve more intense and
complicated negotiations than any country has ever
had to negotiate. And yes, I include war time peace
agreements. That is because our relationship with
the EU has developed over 40 years of delicate and
intense negotiations. It will be impossible to unpick
these in 21 months. Tony Blair (love him or hate him)
was right on this one when he said it was a leap into
the unknown.
F
The “remain” campaign warned of dire conse-
quences, the so called Project Fear. Interest rates
would have to rise. There would be a squeeze on
living standards. Our security would be threatened.
Whereas the “leave” campaign said this was all non-
sense and that there would be buckets of cash for
better things and the rest of the world would be
itching to trade with us.
So who was right?
Well, neither side predicted the complete and utter
political chaos in which we now find ourselves. The
legislative machine that is parliament is taking us
down a path that the majority of them do not want
to follow — a hard Brexit. We have a prime minister
who has been utterly humiliated and discredited,
which has allowed an opposition to produce fantasy
world policies to make it look electable. Probably
weirdest of all, the SNP is in retreat in Scotland (al-
though still the largest party there), whereas the To-
ries, although in decline everywhere else, have made
a spectacular recovery under its incredibly charis-
matic and talented leader, Ruth Davidson. If only
Ruth would come south.
Let’s look at the various promises that were made
and see if they are likely to come true.
Remain
Security: This was always a myth. We will co-operate
with all well-meaning countries as we have always
done and the institutions that guarantee this, such
as NATO, are nothing to do with the EU anyway. As
the UK is a major contributor, it seems likely that
there will be no deterioration here. This was the most
dishonest part of the “remain” campaign.
Economic Damage: Pre the referendum, the UK
was the fastest growing G7 country and was the
second fastest growing country in the EU. Today, it
is the slowest growing of all those countries and
sluggish growth is likely to persist for at least three
to four years. This matters, for if the economy
doesn’t grow, there is less paid in tax, which means
we all suffer. The £ has dropped by 15% and has
stayed low. This affects the price of so many things
— the most obvious being holidays, cars, petrol and
food. It also pushes up inflation, which means that
our real earnings are now shrinking year on year. It
should be born in mind that we haven’t left yet, so
uncertainty is probably causing much of this
damage. However, the big fear is a hard Brexit and
both parties seem hell bent on that.
retailappointment.co.uk
Leave
Money: All the extra money was never going to
happen and Nigel Farage himself admitted that the
morning after the result. There is a huge financial cost
to us all for leaving, which will almost certainly never
be recovered. £billions have already been lost through
the low currency and there is far worse to come. Yes,
they sell more to us than we sell to them. But, the im-
portance of that trade works the other way. Europe
is about 44% of our trade, whereas we are only 8%
of theirs. Immense damage has already been done
and it is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Immigration: Immigration from the EU is falling but
it will be replaced by immigration from elsewhere, un-
less the economy contracts so badly that we don’t
need them. What is astonishing about this debate is
that most people don’t realise that the illegal immi-
gration, which is almost double EU immigration, will
persist and this has nothing to do with the EU. It has
everything to do with the incompetence of the Home
Office. You may remind yourselves who ran the Home
Office for the last six years!
Trade outside the EU: This sounded like one of the
most legitimate of the “leave” campaigns claims. The
EU is a sclerotic behemoth that, because of its com-
position of 28 countries, finds it very difficult to get
agreement with others. The EU-Canada agreement
took seven years, was almost certainly not as com-
prehensive as it could have been and nearly
foundered because a small province in one of Eu-
rope’s small countries (Belgium) voted it down. The
UK with its trading history will find it easier to nego-
tiate free trade with these countries — but not until
after we have left and it will still take time.
Take back control: This was always a nonsense. The
European Court of Justice rules over matters that re-
late almost entirely to trade. In total, EU origin laws
make up about 13% of our laws. The ECJ is there to
help us, too. It is worth noting that the UK has won
more cases in the ECJ than any other country. If we
are to have any trade with the EU at all, the rules of
the ECJ will prevail, one way or the other, anyway.
The most worrying aspect of this whole business is
the political chaos in which we now find ourselves.
Whatever form Brexit takes, it is likely to smash to
pieces both the major parties. We saw only last week
that Labour split over the Queen’s speech over an EU
related amendment. They will do so again.
One almost certain outcome of this referendum and
what has followed is that the Tory Party, Britain’s
oldest political party, will not survive. Only weeks ago
we were talking about the survival of the Labour party
(which is still in doubt). The short term does, however,
look like fortune will favour Jeremy Corbyn and for
the first time in history, Britain could have a Marxist
led government.
The only way out of this would seem to be the cre-
ation of a new party made up of the sensible people
from both parties in Westminster. Something akin to
Macron’s En Marche Party in France. It would take an
enormous amount of courage to form such a party.
And, you don’t see much of that about in Westminster
these days, do you?
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