Retail Appointment January 2019 TRAP_Jan 2019_Digital Edition | Page 9

any of you were hoping that if the Prime
Minister got her deal through, Brexit would
be over and done with and we could all
move on. If you were, you would have been wrong.
I am reminded of Winston Churchill’s famous words
after winning the Battle of El Alamein: “Now is not
the end; it is not even the beginning of the end. But
it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
M
Getting this deal through Parliament was only the
beginning. This isn’t the trade agreement. It is, not
even quite the start, of the trade agreement. It is
merely an agreement that we are leaving. That took
two years. How long is the trade deal going to take?
Well, it took Canada seven years to negotiate a deal,
and that was far less complicated. So, assuming
we press on with this, expect Brexit to be rammed
down your throats for the next decade, at least.
Of course, the PM did not get her deal through Par-
liament. In fact, her failure to win over Parliament has
no parallel in the modern world and is apparently the
worst defeat for a sitting government — ever. In a Par-
liament that is a thousand years old, which has been
through countless wars including a civil war, this is a
most extraordinary achievement. And on the following
day, this same Parliament rejected a vote of no con-
fidence in the same government. The rest of the world
looks on wondering what on earth has gone wrong in
one of the most stable countries in the world.
So, what happens now?
No one can say for sure and certainly no one in gov-
ernment or Parliament. As it stands, if nothing hap-
pens we will leave the EU on 29th March with no deal
and no arrangements in place, unless you include
the shipping company they’ve booked to sort out the
congestion issue in Dover. This was a master stroke
because that same company doesn’t have any ships!
I suppose that solves the congestion problem.
In reality, other than the real hardcore Brexiteers, no
one wants that and it almost certainly won’t happen.
It is not just Parliament putting pressure on the gov-
ernment. It was no accident that the prime minister
of Japan was in town last week. Other governments
are warning the British Government that there will
be a very heavy price to pay for causing an eco-
nomic shock that will reverberate around the world
for years. I would bet my house on there having been
a stern message that all Japanese investment in the
UK would end in the event of a no deal. The
Japanese would not be the only country applying
that pressure.
If our PM continues to try and persuade people that
her deal is viable, then she would be certifiably delu-
sional. Europe will not make any more concessions
retailappointment.co.uk
for they know they have her on the ropes. This in-
tensely unpopular prime minister has few friends in
her own party and none beyond.
Therefore, the first thing that must happen is that the
clock be stopped. There will be an urgent request to
Europe to extend the deadline and that extension
will be forthcoming. If not, then the UK will revoke
Article 50 altogether and start again.
But, then what?
There is an impasse. There is no way that the EU will
move on the controversial backstop on the border
in Ireland and, as anyone who knows anything at all
about Irish history will know, the DUP, upon which
the government relies to pass any deal, will never
agree to anything that tries to separate Northern Ire-
land from the UK.
A general election will only help if Theresa May gets
a majority government, which seems highly unlikely.
A majority Labour government may well ignore the
concerns of Northern Ireland, but it does so at its peril.
Nothing is more likely to kick off the troubles again
than running roughshod over one side or the other.
This only leaves a second referendum. But that will
only solve the problem if there is a resounding vote
to remain. Because, if it confirms the first refer-
endum, we are back to square one and the DUP will
still not give the government the support it needs.
Perhaps then the opposition parties will support the
government to get things dealt with, but nothing is
guaranteed. If we do remain, we would have never-
theless already suffered untold damage with the loss
of high paid jobs in a range of industries already
gone, never to return. Nevertheless, a public vote to
remain seems the least worst of all options, even
though it will leave us humiliated and diminished in
the eyes of the world.
It didn’t have to be like this.
If politicians of all sides and all parties had been
honest with us from the start, the public would have
given them the time they needed to get this right. It
was never going to happen that 40 years of integra-
tion could be unravelled in two years and it was dis-
honest to say otherwise.
All politicians are responsible for this mess but the
buck stops at the top and that is with Theresa May.
She has wilfully taken us down a route that she knew
would end it tears, whilst the opposition looked on
in horror but offered no credible alternatives.
January 2019 is a sad month for this country and I
fear there is worse to come.
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