Residential Estate Industry Journal 4 - Page 52

WATER & ESTATE LIVING ARABELLA COUNTRY ESTATE The real key issue is not the drought status Risk is the operative word, so professional at any given moment in time, but rather estate managers will need to become savvy the integrity of the infrastructure needed to in this area. Risk can be thought of as reticulate water from the source, through the probability of an event taking place, society and back into the nearest river as multiplied by the impact of that event. waste. This is the major challenge, because These things are relatively easy to define government data shows that a staggering if one adopts an open mind and accepts R213 billion is needed over the next decade that the new normal will increasingly differ to rehabilitate existing infrastructure, with from business as usual. The language of an additional R172 billion needed for new risk will therefore start to permeate the Not so fast. The Vaal Dam is full, but my regional bulk water projects (R75 billion), estate manager’s professional lexicon, as office in the Hyde Park area needs a bucket new internal supply projects (R60 billion) trustees and directors become savvy about to flush the toilet. What does this mean? and new sanitation (R37 billion). The fiscus fiduciary responsibilities. THE WORST DROUGHT ON RECORD STILL HAS THE WESTERN CAPE IN ITS DEADLY GRIP. Fortunately, reasonable rains have fallen over the rest of the country and, from an agricultural perspective at least, the drought seems to have broken. So, our water problems are behind us? Firstly, the current drought is the worst on record. This is totally consistent with El Niño data accepted by mainstream scientists. Over the last five decades there has been a measurable upward trend in El Niño peaks is simply unable to provide this money, and the ratings agency downgrade means that capital raising by parastatals on the international bond market is no longer possible. This is actually a good news story, however, because our new normal, creates the opportunity to wrestle back direct control over key elements that impact on our daily lives. New technologies make this increasingly possible. This includes the and troughs, so the new normal is likely This means that estates are now being thrust to be an even worse drought in the next into a new normal that very few people are decade. That drought is likely to be deep, capable of accurately articulating. In short, protracted and widespread across the entire just because the Vaal Dam is full, it does South African Development Community not mean that the water crisis is over. On comforts we all deserve. SADC region. the contrary, it is only just beginning. The take-home message is that change Secondly, robust data published by the The average estate resident is now faced in both the water and environmental Water Research Commission in 2015 shows with a new reality. They can ignore what is that the 1980s was a decade of transition happening and continue with business as in the distribution of rainfall across the usual, or they can adopt a wait-and-see country. Prior to the 1980s, the winter rainfall in June to August was generally reliable, but has since shifted. This has major implications for the Western Cape, not yet fully understood. PAGE 50 approach, reacting after things happen. Another option is to grasp the nettle and accept that the new normal will increasingly be about adapting to infrastructure collapse by internalising risk. safe treatment of both potable and waste water. In fact, it is increasingly possible to move off grid with little loss in the creature management of estates is rapid and inevitable. While this is initially disconcerting as one is confronted with unfamiliar issues and jar Ё́ͼݕɥ́ͽ)́́ѡЁͥ́́Յ)ȁѥ=ɝͅѥ́I )ݥɕͥɽ٥ɥ͔)ͽѥ́Ѽѡ́ɹ䁱́ɕ͙հ