WATER &
ESTATE LIVING
ARABELLA COUNTRY ESTATE
THE WORST DROUGHT ON RECORD STILL HAS THE WESTERN CAPE IN ITS DEADLY GRIP .
Fortunately , reasonable rains have fallen over the rest of the country and , from an agricultural perspective at least , the drought seems to have broken . So , our water problems are behind us ?
Not so fast . The Vaal Dam is full , but my office in the Hyde Park area needs a bucket to flush the toilet . What does this mean ?
Firstly , the current drought is the worst on record . This is totally consistent with El Niño data accepted by mainstream scientists . Over the last five decades there has been a measurable upward trend in El Niño peaks and troughs , so the new normal is likely to be an even worse drought in the next decade . That drought is likely to be deep , protracted and widespread across the entire South African Development Community SADC region .
Secondly , robust data published by the Water Research Commission in 2015 shows that the 1980s was a decade of transition in the distribution of rainfall across the country . Prior to the 1980s , the winter rainfall in June to August was generally reliable , but has since shifted . This has major implications for the Western Cape , not yet fully understood .
The real key issue is not the drought status at any given moment in time , but rather the integrity of the infrastructure needed to reticulate water from the source , through society and back into the nearest river as waste . This is the major challenge , because government data shows that a staggering R213 billion is needed over the next decade to rehabilitate existing infrastructure , with an additional R172 billion needed for new regional bulk water projects ( R75 billion ), new internal supply projects ( R60 billion ) and new sanitation ( R37 billion ). The fiscus is simply unable to provide this money , and the ratings agency downgrade means that capital raising by parastatals on the international bond market is no longer possible .
This means that estates are now being thrust into a new normal that very few people are capable of accurately articulating . In short , just because the Vaal Dam is full , it does not mean that the water crisis is over . On the contrary , it is only just beginning .
The average estate resident is now faced with a new reality . They can ignore what is happening and continue with business as usual , or they can adopt a wait-and-see approach , reacting after things happen . Another option is to grasp the nettle and accept that the new normal will increasingly be about adapting to infrastructure collapse by internalising risk .
Risk is the operative word , so professional estate managers will need to become savvy in this area . Risk can be thought of as the probability of an event taking place , multiplied by the impact of that event . These things are relatively easy to define if one adopts an open mind and accepts that the new normal will increasingly differ from business as usual . The language of risk will therefore start to permeate the estate manager ’ s professional lexicon , as trustees and directors become savvy about fiduciary responsibilities .
This is actually a good news story , however , because our new normal , creates the opportunity to wrestle back direct control over key elements that impact on our daily lives . New technologies make this increasingly possible . This includes the safe treatment of both potable and waste water . In fact , it is increasingly possible to move off grid with little loss in the creature comforts we all deserve .
The take-home message is that change in both the water and environmental management of estates is rapid and inevitable . While this is initially disconcerting as one is confronted with unfamiliar issues and jargon , it is also empowering as soon as one accepts that business as usual is no longer an option . Organisations like ARC will increasingly provide a clearing house of solutions to make this journey less stressful .
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