No one has a crystal ball of what will happen in November 2016, but whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, the field of candidates is interesting and the topics of discussion are lively and robust.
We see the candidates doing their usual jockeying for position, as is the case in any election. But what is really going on behind the scenes? Which candidate, if any, has the inside track? Who has the big financial support? Which candidate has the pathway to victory?
On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her opponents are former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (who is polling at 4% nationally) and the surging US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is making this a very competitive race. Initially, statistics showed that this race was going to be a slam dunk for Secretary Clinton. But over the last few months, the populist message of Bernie Sanders has resonated with women, minorities, and the youth. As of today’s poll numbers, Sanders looks poised to do very well in Iowa and
New Hampshire, the first two primary state.
On the Republican side, the frontrunner is the self-funded New York real estate mogul Donald Trump. He has a commanding lead in nearly every state poll, and he is leading in the national poll, as well. The GOP field of candidates is so vast that the debates have to be divided into two different debates. In addition to Donald Trump, the other GOP
candidates include: US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), Retired Neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson, US Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), US Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ), Governor John Kasich (R-OH), former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR), former US Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), former Hewlitt Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA). Recently, rumors have been circulating that former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY) may also enter the race. He has the money and the influence to further stir the pot in this election season of the popularity cult, but there’s been no confirmation that Bloomberg is definitely going to run.
My theory and what I see happening in this race for President (on both sides of the political aisle) is that the general consensus is resisting the default establishment candidates. On the GOP side, Jeb Bush was the anointed one who was supposed to assume the GOP nomination on name recognition and money alone. To date, he is almost non-existent. The people are not allowing the establishment to pick the winner of the race this time, and the establishment is a bit annoyed with that. The establishment’s Plan B is Marco Rubio, and he is trying to break into the 3rd or 4th place spots in Iowa and nationally. But the gap between Trump and Rubio is still huge. The other establishment candidates like Christie have no pathway to victory, and they are simply placeholders in the race. Once again the strategy has shifted. Now that the plan to bet the establishment farm on Jeb and Rubio apparently isn’t working, and with Trump seemingly having a great chance to run away with the primaries, it
the 2016 presidential election:
what is happening and what it means