The Christian Reader November 2006 39
OBAMA MUST WEIGH THE X FACTOR OF RACE
By Earl Ofari Hutchinson
Guest Columnist
Democratic candidate.
Doug Wilder discovered that the hard way when he made a bid to be
the first black governor of Virginia in 1989. Four years earlier, he got
Illinois Senator Barack Obama says that he’s mulling over a presiden- substantial white vote support in his successful run for the lieutenant
governor. But the governor’s race was a far different
tial run in 2008. That’s not surprising considering
story. Polls gave Wilder a near landslide victory. But
that Obama has been annointed by Time
that was based on what white voters told pollsters.
Magazine as the new face of the Democrats. And
On election night, the landslide predictions evapoit’s a good label. Obama is telegenic, articulate, a
rated, and Wilder barely squeaked out a win. Many
good campaigner, a top fundraiser, and a centrist
white voters that professed their color-blindness
Democrat in good stead with the Party regulars.
toward Wilder, jumped ship in the voting booth.
Even the knock against him that he is too green
How much has changed in the near two decades
on the issues, and too wet behind the ears as a
since then? The November 7 mid-term election may
seasoned political pro, can be airbrushed over
give an answer. There are a slew of black Dems and
since many White House occupants, and that
Republican candidates running for governor and the
includes the current one, were at the first dot on
Senate in several key swing states. They face white
the learning curve on national and international
opponents and they can’t win without substantial
affairs before they bagged the presidency.
white vote support. Most of the candidates are wellThe issue, however, that can’t be lightly brushed
known, top flight, seasoned office holders, and a
over is race. The dangling question that Obama
high profile sports icon, and are backed to the hilt by
must wrestle with is will white voters, and that
their parties, and in a few cases hold substantial
includes Democrats as well as moderate to conleads over their white opponents. Yet, none are conservative independents, vote for a black
sidered shoo-ins.
presidential candidate. The answer is very much
The issue of race will be dicier for Obama in a presup in the air.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson
idential jaunt. He will have to unhinge one or two of
Obama did a fairly good job in getting white
the Southern or Border States away from the GOP. The
Democratic and independent vote support in his Illinois Senate victory.
But this was not a fair test. His opponent was lightly regarded, fill-in solid South, that is the South that is mostly white, conservative and
outsider, Alan Keyes, also an African-American. Many Republican male, pro war, anti-big government, vehemently opposes any political
loyalists in the state were no-shows on Election Day. The chance that tilt to minorities, and is heavily influenced by ultra conservative Bible
they’d cross over and vote for favorite son, Obama, as a presidential Belt fundamentalism. Obama is not an outspoken foe of Bush on the
contender, is virtually nil. Still, many white voters when publicly ques- war, terrorism, and domestic policies, and even made some soundings
tioned whether they’d vote for a black candidate, swear that race about the need to court the evangelicals. But the Southern strategy was
makes no difference in their pick. But it’s often a far different story the ace in the hole for GOP presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr. and
when the voting curtain closes. And there no prying pollster eyes, and Bush Jr. In 2008 the GOP will do everything it can to make sure that
reporter microphones and note pads around. In a 2006 study in the conservative white males don’t defect from the party. If Obama is the
Quarterly Journal of Economics, a Yale political economist found that Dems man in 2008, the GOP may find the temptation almost too irrewhite Republicans are 25 percentage points more likely to cross over sistible not to flip the race card against him.
and vote for a white Democratic senatorial candidate against a black Many white voters can and will vote for Obama if they feel he has the
presidential right stuff. But many still can’t or won’t step past his color.
Republican foe.
That tormenting fact still makes race the X factor that Obama and the
If Obama had
Democrats must carefully weigh in 2008.
been white and
BlackNews.com columnist Earl Ofari Hutchinson is a political analyst
faced Keyes or
and social issues commentator, and the author of The Emerging Black
any other black
GOP Majority (Middle Passage Press, September 2006), a hard-hitting
GOP candidate in
look at Bush and The GOP’s court of black voters. For order informahis Illinois Senate
tion, see www.blackgopbook.com
bid, thousands of
For media interviews, contact:
w h i t e
Mr. Hutchinson at 323-296-6331 or [email protected]
Republicans
would
have
defied their party
and crossed over
to vote for him.
The study also found that in the near 20-year stretch from 1982 to
[email protected]
2000, when the GOP candidate was black, the big majority of white
independent voters backed the white candidate. But Republicans and
(904) 765-4229 Jacksonville
independents weren’t the only ones guilty of phony election colorblindness. Many Democrats were too. In House races, the study found
(386) 672-7845 Daytona Beach
that white Democrats were nearly 40 percent less likely to back a black
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