47
PRO INSTALLER MARCH 2015
PRO BUSINESS
@proinstaller1
Glass Protection System
from Edgetech UK
Election
Uncertainty
to Hinder 2015
Growth
Construction output is forecast to increase 5.3%
in 2015 and 17.8% by 2018 according to the latest
forecasts from the Construction Products Association,
but growth is expected to slow in the medium-term
due to election uncertainty and capacity constraints.
Key highlights from the forecasts
include:
• Private house building forecast to rise
10.0% in 2015 and 20.2% by 2018
• ommercial offices construction expected
C
to increase 8.0% in 2015 and 25.0% by
2018
• Infrastructure activity forecast to rise 7.9%
in 2015 and 51.5% by 2018
Dr Noble Francis, Economics Director of the
Association, commented: “Last year’s recovery
in construction was driven primarily by 18.0%
growth in private house building. This year,
industry growth will be more broad-based as
further a further increase of 10.0% in private
house building is expected to be supported
by 8.0% growth in commercial offices and
7.9% growth in new infrastructure.
“Growth rates across most of the industry are expected to slow in 2016 and 2017
because of uncertainty regarding the General
Election in May, which could give pause to
both contract awards and industry investment.
Whilst this is unlikely to impact construction
activity this year, due to the lag between
contracts and activity on the ground, it may
have an adverse effect on output in both 2016
and 2017.”
Dr Francis continued: “Private house
building growth is expected to slow from
10% this year to 5% in 2016 and 3% in
2017. In addition, activity in the commercial offices sector, which is still 39.5% below the pre-recession peak, is forecast to
grow 7% in 2016 and 5% in 2017. Growth
in total construction output, therefore,
is expected to slow to 4.2% in 2015 and
3.4% in 2016.
“The industry also has concerns regarding capacity constraints in the medium-term. Whilst output in the sector during 2014 was 8.5% below the level seen in
2007, overall capacity last year was not a
key issue. However, construction output is
forecast to surpass the pre-recession peak
during the next 18 months, this despite
the industry having lost 343,000 jobs and
considerable materials capacity in the
seven years following the financial crisis.
As a result, it is essential that there is
significant investment in UK construction
skills and manufacturing over the next
few years if the growth forecast is to be
achieved.”
Source: www.constructionproducts.org.uk
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