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world supply suppresses price growth and volatility. It weakens the power of OPEC to manage crude oil supply and
drive prices. In the release of the NERA report, Larry Summers – former Treasury Secretary and National Economic
Council Director – stated the issue clearly:
It either has happened or will happen within the next 18 months – that American production of oil will
exceed Saudi production of oil. Do we want the world's largest democracy, largest in an economic sense,
and most vital democracy to be able to have the kind of influence, when it is also the world's largest oil
producer, that comes from being able to sell oil, freely on the world market? Or do we wish to deny
ourselves that on some a priori ground? The question, it seems to me, answers itself. Do we want others to
depend on us and have all the consequences that come with that dependence which includes a certain
amount of influence on our part, or do we wish them to depend on the Middle-East? Do we wish the
routes, through which oil travels, to be dominantly those of the contested seas of the Pacific or of those
more proximate, to us? Seems to me that question answers itself, as well.
Allowing Crude Oil Exports Is Appropriate Trade Policy: As the Center for Global Energy Policy states in its
analysis: Lifting crude export restrictions is consistent with past and present US trade policy priorities, would enhance
US credibility in current and future trade negotiations, and avoid creating a precedent that could harm US trade policy
objectives down the road. The world crude marketplace is largely fungible and adding U.S. crude would improve its
liquidity and stability. It helps buffer shocks from geopolitical events around the world. For example, U.S. crude
production helped fill the void left by sharp reductions in crude oil availability from geopolitical flashpoints like the
uprising in Libya that crippled its crude production
Gasoline Prices Will Be Stable: The current export policies have not kept gasoline prices low. In fact, a recent
Resources for the Future analysis concluded that the price of gasoline will likely fall by around three to seven cents per
gallon if crude oil exports expand. IHS concluded that gasoline prices could be reduced by eight cents per gallon.
NERA’s analysis concluded that a possible nine cent per gallon decrease was likely for five years, but if oil supplies are
more abundant than the analysis assumed, price declines would be seven cents per gallon to twelve cents per gallon for a
longer period of time. These analyses reflect the realities demonstrated in a recent EIA report – What Drives U.S.
Gasoline Prices? It concl Ց