Case Study # 0617-03 PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
NOTIONAL : FOR INSTRUCTION PURPOSES ONLY
The Scenario :
AFTER THE FALL OF NORTH KOREA A POST-CONFLICT STABILITY OPERATIONS EXERCISE
Per DOD Joint Publication 3-07 : “ Stabilization is the process by which military and nonmilitary actors collectively apply various instruments of national power to address drivers of conflict , foster host-nation resiliencies , and create conditions that enable sustainable peace and security .”
Backdrop : Hypothetical Current Conditions
1 . It is April 2020 . The two-month kinetic battle , provoked by North Korea , is largely over and South Korea and the U . S . have won it . North Korea could not muster the logistical tail – including food – to keep fighting . Kim Jong Un and his immediate elite cohort have disappeared , leaving the economy , infrastructure , political system and society in shambles : without the top structure , North Korea faces a complete governmental legitimacy crisis . Except at the smallest village level , no structure of government is left ; even these village mayors will need assessment . 2 . Over 90 % of the North Korean population was already disenfranchised from its now non-existent government . Nearly all of the 25 million North Koreans are hungry . Over 10 million have lost their homes , either due to the fighting or to search for food . The people are bewildered , mistrustful , defeated , abandoned and angry . Few know where to turn and most feel that they have no voice . 3 . While the North Korean Army ( one general ) surrendered yesterday , some scattered North Korean army insurgents are continuing guerilla warfare . Both the North and the South sustained significant infrastructure damage as well as high casualty rates . Starting from a total of 1,000,000 North Korean military forces , the North suffered nearly 100,000 military deaths and some 200,000 injured , along with an unknown but significant number of civilian casualties . The South also suffered approximately the same numbers of casualties , but deaths and injuries on the civilian side were much higher than in the North – nearly half of the casualties due to the Democratic People ' s Republic of Korea ( DPRK ’ s ) indiscriminate " saturation " use of force . The United States lost about 7,000 soldiers and another 12,000 were injured . The morgues in the North and South are overwhelmed , causing further trauma , particularly in the North due to the absence of cold storage facilities . 4 . There was limited North Korean use of chemical weapons ( CW ) in South Korea ( artillery shells ) and in Japan ( short- and medium-range missiles ), but no nuclear weapons were used during the fighting . The North Koreans used the non-persistent nerve agent sarin on advancing South Korean and U . S . troop formations above and below the DMZ , and they shelled rear-area military garrisons as well as Seoul with the persistent blister agent sulfur mustard , along with bombing Tokyo with it . Difficult CW remediation in South Korea and Japan continues as several hundred civilians in both capitals were severely affected . 5 . During the last two-to-three weeks of the fighting , China created an unsanctioned ( other than by Russia ) de facto 50-mile deep “ buffer zone ” across the North Korean territory along its border . ( Assumption : China states its reasoning as a desire to keep out an influx of refugees , but Beijing apparently wants defense in-depth and may be positioning itself to stake a permanent claim to part of North Korea ’ s territory to re-create an ancient-times “ Greater China .”) 6 . While the fighting took place , in preparation for a UN Security Council Chapter VII ( internationally legally binding ) Resolution ( UNSCR ) for the post-conflict phase , the ROK and the UN Security Council ’ s Permanent-5 agreed to form a UN Transitional Authority of primarily South Korean , U . S . and Chinese civilian and military leaders to govern the country after the war until the North can be reunified with the South . The UNSC Resolution was signed unanimously yesterday in New York . 7 . Under the UN Transitional Authority , the South Korean Minister of Reunification will serve as UN Special Representative and interim Governor of the North ; he will have a U . S . and a Chinese Senior Advisor ( deputy ). The U . S .