Peace & Stability Journal Volume 7, Issue 1 - Page 9

Key Stabilization Tasks Assuming this post-collapse scenario plays out as a new major power rivalry, it will be critical for South Korea and its key allies to work out a division of labor and areas of responsibility with China (and possibly Russia) preferably through the United Nations Security Council but more likely via a Six-Party Talks framework. South Korea and the United States will need to of- fer hard transactional trade-offs that provide adequate security assurances to China in return for its acquiescence on unifica¬- tion. For emerging North Korean leaders, the socio-economic weight of South Korean and international aid, coupled with co-equal integration, may be enough to bring in most, if not all of North Korea. The international focus group in concert with whatever North Korean authorities quickly emerge will face several key stabilization challenges in security, humanitarian as- sistance, justice, economic infrastructure, and governance. Key stabilization tasks in order of priority include: Near Term 1. Weapons security. China is best situated to win the race to control North Korea’s nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. Most of these facilities are closer to China and the relevant North Korean military units may be more disposed to China than others such as South Korea, the U.S., Russia, and, most certainly, Japan. Since both geogra- phy and political links appear to put China at point on this stabilization task, multi-party talks should seek agreement with China on the rules of engagement with North Korean Army units in the event of a Kim collapse, the procedures for reporting and securing the weapons, and the verification of their final disposition. In this regard, China may actually prefer to work with the U.S. rather than risk South Korea “inheriting” North Korea’s weapons. Ultimately, all parties should commit to implementing a denuclearized Korean peninsula, a long-standing goal of the International Com- munity. 2. Humanitarian aid. North Korea’s collapse will confront South Korea and international actors with the world’s great- est humanitarian disaster. More than half of North Korea’s total 25-million population is estimated to suffer from malnutrition. A third of North Korean children under five evince substandard growth, particularly in rural areas. ) ɽɡ́ѡ͔ЁѠՔѼ)ՅєͅхѥḾ)х݅ѕȁݥɝ͍ѥ́)ɥѥ́ɽѡ%ѕɹѥ չ(̸ձѥ̸9Ѡ-ɕéЁձȴ)ձѥ́ɔѼɅєͽѠݡɔѡݥ)ЁѼЁ䁉䁹յхɥ)ͼѡɽ٥ͥͥՍѥ)͕٥̸Q́ݥɕեɔѡɅхѥ)ͽ̸(иAA9Ѡ-ɕѕɥѽ)䁥ѥ䁡ЁյȁѕɹЁɽ́ѡ)ɔѕѥѼ͕锁͕̰ɵɥ̰)̸̰5䁽ѡ͔х䁅͕ɥ)չ́ɽɕͥЁMѠ-ɕȁ]ѕɸͽ̸)5ձѤх́ݥѼٔЁɕ́ɕ)ͥ䁙ȁѡѕɹѥѽ́ٽٕх͠)ɕѥɽɕ́Ѽ͕ɅєЁɽ́)хєѥ́䁙ɕɽ̸)%ѥձȰѡх́ЁɕեɕЁѡ)ͅɵЁȁѥѥչ͔́)ѼѡɑȁݥѠMѠ-ɕ(ԸЁѥ̸%ѡєѕɵѠ)͔ѕɹѥѽ́ݥѼх)ѥѕ٥9Ѡ-ɕЁ̸͡Q͔)́͡䁍хՍȁѕɥ́ȁ͕)ѡЁɽՔ́ɔ͕Ѽɕٔɽѡչ)5մQɴ(ظٕɹQUѕ9ѥ́Mɥ չȰ)͡ЁѡаMAQ́չɥ́͡ձѕ)ѼѕȁѡɵѥɅͥѥٕɹх)ѕѼٽɕѥѥѡչ丁MՍ)ѕՕѡ݅ѡ͔ѡ-)䁙Ʌ͔́չѥ́хЁЁ͔)յٕ͔͕́́9Ѡ-ɕͽݥ)Յ́MѠ-ɕѕѥ̴)ѕ%ѡ́аѕɹѥѽ́͡ձՔ)Ʌɱхѕ͕́Ѽݕəհ)ѥٔѕQTLMѠ-ɕ͡ձٽ)ٽѥɅ镐ѕȁѡ٥́ɕͽ)ɕ͕́ѡ-аɕхɑ́ѡٕ)̵̰́ѡɽՍѥ)ɕѕȁչх䁅Ʌɕ(ܸIձ1܁A1ɔ䁙ɵɅѥ)ѥѕȵ-ɕѥѕɕɅչ)չѥѥɅФ܁9Ѡ-ɕ)́ݥѼͥȁѹ͡ݥѠѕɹ)ѥչ́Ѽɍɑȸ́ѡ͔х́չ)ݥѠɝ9Ѡ-ɕ̰MѠ-ɕѡ)TLݥٔɽѕɕЁɽѥ܁ɍ)Ёѹ͡ѡЁ́ͥѕЁݥѠѡɥ)չ-ɕ9Ѡ-ɕ́ɽ́ٽٕ(