Peace & Stability Journal Volume 7, Issue 1 - Page 32

Introduction Zimbabwe is highly likely to become increasingly unstable in the next 18-24 months before elections can be held in 2018, due to a need for sweeping political, electoral, and economic reforms that are unlikely under President Robert Mugabe’s de- cades-long corrupt rule. Instability is likely to incr •…Ν”‘Ι…΅…Π΄)₯…±±δ…́Α½±₯Ρ₯…°½ΑΑ½Ν₯Ρ₯½Έ΅½Ω•΅•ΉΠ…Ρ₯Ω₯Ρ₯•Μ…ΉΑΙ½Ρ•ΝΡΜ)½˜έ½ΙΝ•Ή₯Ήœ•½Ή½΅₯Œ½Ή‘₯Ρ₯½ΉΜΥΉ‘•Ι΅₯Ή”Ή½Ή…•Ή…Ι₯…Έ)5՝…‰—Šéݕ…­•Ή₯ΉœΙ₯ΐ½ΈΑ½έ•ΘΈ)₯͍ΥΝΝ₯½Έθ)Q‘”ΑΙ•Ν₯‘•ΉΠ½˜i₯΅‰…‰έ”Ν₯Ή”€Δδΰΐ°€δΘ΅ε•…Θ΅½±I½‰•ΙΠ)5՝…‰”‘…́„‘₯ΝΡ½Ι䁽˜Ν•₯ι₯Ήœ…Ή΅…₯ΉΡ…₯Ή₯ΉœΑ½έ•ΘΡ‘ɽ՝ )Ω₯½±•Ή”…Ή½ΙΙΥΑΡ₯½ΈΈ!₯́i₯΅‰…‰έ”™Ι₯…Έ9…Ρ₯½Έ΄)…°UΉ₯½ΈƒŠLA…ΡΙ₯½Ρ₯ŒΙ½ΉΠ€‘i…ΉΤ΅A€Α…ΙΡ䁑…́•Ή…•₯Έ)•ΝΑ•₯…±±δΙ…΅Α…ΉΠ½ΙΙΥΑΡ₯½Έ₯ΈΡ‘”ΑΙ•Ω₯½ΎΡέΌ•±•Ρ₯½Έ)ε±•ΜΈ€Δ%Έ€Θΐΐఁ5՝…‰”±½ΝЁё”™₯ΙΝЁɽչ½˜•±•Ρ₯½ΉΜΡΌ)5½Ι…ΈQΝΩ…Ή₯Ι…€°Ρ‘”5½Ω•΅•ΉΠ™½Θ•΅½Ι…Ρ₯Œ ‘…Ή”(‘5 €…Ή‘₯‘…Ρ”Έ%Έ½Ι‘•ΘΡΌ•ΉΝΥΙ”Ρ‘…Ё‘”έ½ΈΡ‘”Ν•½Ή)Ι½ΥΉ°5՝…‰”₯΅Α±•΅•ΉΡ•„΅₯±₯Ρ…Ιδ΅±•ΝΡΙ…Ρ•δ₯Έέ‘₯ )Ρ‘½ΥΝ…Ή‘́½˜Ω½Ρ•Ίݕɔ‰•…Ρ•Έ…Ή₯Ή‘•Α•Ή‘•ΉΠ½™™₯₯…±Μέ•Ι”)‘Ι₯Ω•Έ½ΥЁ½˜Ρ‘”•±•Ρ₯½Έ…‘΅₯Ή₯ΝΡΙ…Ρ₯½ΈΈ€Θ%Έ€ΘΐΔΜ°i…ΉΤ΅A)ΥΝ•΅…ΝΝ₯Ω”•±•Ρ½Ι…°™Ι…ՐΡΌ•ΉΝΥΙ”Ω₯Ρ½Ι䰁έ₯Ρ …Έ•ΝΡ₯΅…Ρ•)½Ή”΅₯±±₯½Έ₯ΉΩ…±₯Ή…΅•Μ½ΈΡ‘”•±•Ρ½Ι…°Ι½±°°₯Ή±Υ‘₯Ήœ΅…Ήδ)‘••…Ν•Ω½Ρ•ΙΜΈ€Μ)i₯΅‰…‰έ”™…•ΜΝΥ‰ΝΡ…ΉΡ₯…°•½Ή½΅₯Œ₯ΝΝΥ•Μ°Ρ‘”™½ΥΉ‘…Ρ₯½Ή…°)ΑΙ½‰±•΄‰•₯Ήœ„…Ν Ν‘½ΙΡ…”Έ)Υ±δ€ΘΐΔ؁΅…ɭ́ё”Ν•½Ή)ΝΡΙ…₯‘Ё΅½ΉΡ Ρ‘…Ёё”…Ν‘±•Ν́i₯΅‰…‰έ”½Ω•ΙΉ΅•ΉΠ‘…Μ)‰••Έ™½Ι•ΡΌ‘•±…δΑ…ε΅•ΉΡ́™½Θ₯Ω₯°Ν•ΙΩ…ΉΡΜ°₯Ή±Υ‘₯Ήœ)‘½Ρ½ΙΜ°Ρ•…‘•ΙΜ°ΉΥΙΝ•Μ°…ΉΡ‘”΅₯±₯Ρ…Ι一ЁQ‘”½Ω•ΙΉ΅•ΉΠ)‘…́…±ΝΌ₯΅Α±•΅•ΉΡ•ΝΡΙ₯Π±₯΅₯Ρ́½ΈΡ‘”…΅½ΥΉΠ½˜…Ν Ρ‘…Π)₯Ρ₯镹́…Έέ₯Ρ‘‘Ʌ܁™Ι½΄‰…Ή­ΜΈ€ΤΥΙΡ‘•Θ•α…•Ι‰…Ρ₯ΉœΡ‘”)•½Ή½΅₯ŒΙ₯Ν₯́₯́„Ν•Ω•Ι”‘ɽ՝‘Ё₯Έ₯Έi₯΅‰…‰έ”°Ρ‘”™½Ι΅•Θ)‰Ι•…‘‰…Ν­•Π½˜™Ι₯„°έ‘₯ ₯́ё”έ½ΙΝЁ₯Έ‘•…‘•ΜΈ€Ψ(Q‘₯Ν±…œΑΙ½Ρ•ΝЁ΅½Ω•΅•ΉΠ‰•…Έ₯ΈΑΙ₯°€ΘΐΔ؁±•‰δA…ΝΡ½Θ)Ω…Έ5…έ…Ι₯Ι”€ά…Ή΅…₯Ή±δ½΅ΑΙ₯Ν•½˜ΥΉ•΅Α±½ε•ε½ΥΉœ)΅•ΈΈ€ΰ±…‰½Θ‰½ε½ΡЁ½ΘƒŠqΝх䡅݅䁑…ηŠtέ…́½Ι…Ή₯镐™½Θ€Ψ))Υ±δΩ₯„]‘…ΡΝΑΐ°…•‰½½¬°…ΉQέ₯ΡѕȁΥΝ₯ΉœΡ‘”‘…Ν‘Ρ…œ(i₯΅M‘ΥΡ½έΈΈ€δ δΝΡ…ε₯Ήœ…݅䁙ɽ΄!…Ι…Ι”…Ή½Ρ‘•Θ)₯Ρ₯•Μ°i₯΅‰…‰έ•…ΉΜ•™™•Ρ₯Ω•±δ±½Ν•‘½έΈ‰ΥΝ₯Ή•ΝΝ•Μ°Ν‘½ΑΜ°)…ΉΝ‘½½±ΜΈ€Δΐ)Q‘” ½ΉΙ•Ν́½˜M½ΥΡ ™Ι₯…ΈQΙ…‘”UΉ₯½ΉΜ€‘ =MQT€‘…Μ)Ω½₯•ΝΥΑΑ½ΙЁ™½ΘΡ‘”ΑΙ½Ρ•ΝЁ΅½Ω•΅•ΉΠ₯Έi₯΅‰…‰έ”Έ=Έ(Δ́)ձ䰁 =MQWŠé₯ΉΡ•ΙΉ…Ρ₯½Ή…°Ι•±…Ρ₯½ΉΜΝ•Ι•Ρ…ΙδΙ•±•…Ν•)„ΝΡ…Ρ•΅•ΉΠΡ‘…ΠƒŠq ½Ν…ΡԁmΝ₯tΥɝ•ΜΡ‘”Α•½Α±”½˜i₯΅‰…‰έ”)ΡΌ½ΉΡ₯ΉΥ”έ₯Ρ Ρ‘”ΝΡΙ՝±”…ΉΉ½ΠΡΌέ…э ₯‘±δέ‘₯±”Ρ‘”(Μΐ)½Ω•ΙΉ΅•ΉΠΡΙ…΅Α±•ΜΥΑ½ΈΡ‘”Ι₯‘Ρ́½˜έ½Ι­•Ί…Ή½Ι‘₯Ή…Ιδ)₯Ρ₯ι•ΉΜΈMՍ ½½Ι‘₯Ή…Ρ•΅…Ν́…Ρ₯½Έ₯́ё”½Ή±δ±…ΉΥ…”Ρ‘…Π)ΥΉΙ•ΝΑ½ΉΝ₯Ω”Ι•₯΅•ΜΥΉ‘•ΙΝΡ…ΉΈˆ€ΔāQ‘₯́ΝΡ…Ρ•΅•ΉΠ₯́Ν₯Ή₯™€΄)…ΉΠ‰•…ΥΝ” =MQT‰Ι½­”™Ι½΄Ρ‘”Ή…ΙΙ…Ρ₯Ω”½˜Ρ‘”™Ι₯…Έ)9…Ρ₯½Ή…° ½ΉΙ•ΝΜ€‘9 €° =MQWŠé…±±δ…ΉΡ‘”ΙΥ±₯Ήœ)Α…ΙΡδ₯ΈM½ΥΡ ™Ι₯„ΈQ‘”9 ‘…½Ή‘•΅Ή•Ρ‘”ΑΙ½Ρ•ΝΠ)΅½Ω•΅•ΉΠ…Ή±…‰•±±•₯Ё…ΜƒŠqΝΑ½ΉΝ½Ι••±•΅•ΉΡ͕́•­₯ΉœΙ”΄)₯΅”‘…Ή”»Št€ΔΘ)]½΅•Έ‘…Ω”…±ΝΌ‰••Έ…Ρ₯Ω”₯Έ‘•΅½ΉΝΡΙ…Ρ₯½ΉΜ……₯ΉΝЁ5՜΄)…‰”Έ=Έ€Δ؁)ձ䰁‘ΥΉ‘Ι•‘́½˜έ½΅•Έ…Ρ‘•Ι•₯Έ Υ±…έ…εΌ°)i₯΅‰…‰έ—Šé͕½Ή±…ɝ•ΝЁ₯Ρ䰁…Ή‰•…ЁΑ½Ρ́…ΉΑ…ΉΜ₯Έ„)΅…ɍ …±±•Ρ‘”€ •…ΡQ‘•A½Π…΅Α…₯ΈΈ€Δ́Q‘”΅…ɍ έ…́½Ι„΄)Ή₯镐‰δ5 °έ‘½Ν”Ω₯”ΑΙ•Ν₯‘•ΉΠQ‘½­½ι…Ή€-‘ΥΑ”ΝΡ…Ρ•°+ŠqQ‘•Ν”Α½Ρ́ё…Ёݔ…Ι”‰•…Ρ₯Ήœ…Ι”ΉΌ±½Ή•Θ½½­₯Ήœ…ΉεΡ‘₯Ήœ)…Ё‘½΅”Ρ‘₯́₯́ݑδέ”‰Ι½Υ‘Ёё•΄ΡΌΝ…δέ”ΉΌ±½Ή•Θ‘…Ω”)…ΉεΡ‘₯ΉœΡΌ½½¬Έ]”…Ι”ΝΡ…ΙΩ₯Ήœ»Št€ΔΠ)Q‘”Ι•±…Ρ₯Ω•±δΝՍ•ΝΝ™Υ°‘•΅½ΉΝΡΙ…Ρ₯½ΉΜ½Έ€Ψ)ձ䁅Ή€Δ؁)Υ±δ)₯Ή‘₯…Ρ”Ρ‘…Ёё”½ΑΑ½Ν₯Ρ₯½Έ₯́…₯Ή₯Ήœ΅½΅•ΉΡΥ΄₯Έi₯΅‰„΄)‰έ”Έ5՝…‰”έ₯±°‰”€δЁݑ•ΈΡ‘”Ή•αЁΑΙ•Ν₯‘•ΉΡ₯…°•±•Ρ₯½Έ₯Μ)₯Έ€ΘΐΔΰ±•…Ω₯ΉœΡ‘”…΅Α…₯Έ•ΝΝ•ΉΡ₯…±±δ…́„½ΉΡ•ΝЁ‰•Ρέ••Έ)½ΑΑ½Ν₯Ρ₯½ΈΙ½ΥΑΜΈ%˜5՝…‰”₯́₯Ή‘••Ρ‘”i…ΉΤ΅A…Ή‘€΄)‘…Ρ”₯Έ€ΘΐΔఁё”½ΑΑ½Ν₯Ρ₯½Έ…Ή‘₯‘…Ρ”Ρ‘…Ёέ₯±°±₯­•±δΑ½Ν”Ρ‘”)Ι•…Ρ•ΝЁ‘…±±•Ή”ΡΌ‘₯΄₯́)½₯”5Υ©ΥΙΤ°5՝…‰—Šé™½Ι΅•ΘΩ₯”)ΑΙ•Ν₯‘•ΉΠ™Ι½΄€ΘΐΐЁѼ€ΘΐΔΠΈ€ΔΤ)™Ρ•Θ‰•₯ΉœΙ•΅½Ω•™Ι½΄Ρ‘”Ω₯”ΑΙ•Ν₯‘•Ήδ₯Έ€ΘΐΔЁ…΅₯)…±±•…Ρ₯½ΉΜΡ‘…Ё͑”έ…́Α±½ΡΡ₯ΉœΡΌ­₯±°5՝…‰”°€Δ؁5Υ©ΥΙΤ)Ι•…Ρ•‘•Θ½έΈΑ½±₯Ρ₯…°Α…ΙΡ䁭Ή½έΈ…́i₯΅‰…‰έ”A•½Α±”)₯ΙΝΠ€‘iA€Έ΅…©½Θ½΅Α½Ή•ΉΠ½˜5Υ©ΥΙ׊éΑ±…Ρ™½Ι΄₯́‘•Θ)½΅΅₯Ρ΅•ΉΠΡΌΙ•Α…₯Ι₯ΉœΙ•±…Ρ₯½ΉΜέ₯Ρ Ρ‘”]•ΝЁ₯Έ½Ι‘•ΘΡΌ)…ΝΝ₯ΝЁέ₯Ρ •½Ή½΅₯ŒΙ•½Ω•Ιδ₯Έi₯΅‰…‰έ”Έ€Δ܁Q‘₯́₯́„™…Θ)Ι䁙ɽ΄5՝…‰—Šé1½½¬…ΝЁA½±₯δέ‘₯ έ…́₯΅Α±•΅•ΉΡ•)™½±±½έ₯ΉœΝ…ΉΡ₯½ΉΜ₯΅Α½Ν•‰δΡ‘”]•ΝЁ½ΈΝ•Ή₯½Θi…ΉΤ΅A)±•…‘•ΙΜΈ€ΔΰQ‘”1½½¬…ΝЁA½±₯δ‘…́ɕΝΥ±Ρ•₯Έ‘•…±Μέ₯Ρ  ‘₯Ή„)…Ή •±…ΙΎё…Ё‘…Ω”ε•ΠΡΌ‰•Ή•™₯Ёё”i₯΅‰…‰έ•…Έ•½Ή½΅δ€Δδ)…Ή‘…Ω”΅…‘”i₯΅‰…‰έ”₯Ή•±₯₯‰±”™½Θ™ΥΉ‘₯Ήœ™Ι½΄Ρ‘”UL°)ΥΙ½Α•…ΈUΉ₯½Έ°Ρ‘”%ΉΡ•ΙΉ…Ρ₯½Ή…°5½Ή•Ρ…ΙδΥΉ…ΉΡ‘”)]½Ι± …Ή¬Έ€Θΐ)ΝΡ…Ρ•΅•ΉΠ΅…‘”‰δΡ‘”i₯΅‰…‰έ”9…Ρ₯½Ή…°1₯‰•Ι…Ρ₯½Έ]…Θ)Y•Ρ•Ι…ΉΜΝΝ½₯…Ρ₯½Έ½Έ€Θā)ձ䁝…Ω”Ρ‘”½ΑΑ½Ν₯Ρ₯½Έ™ΥΙΡ‘•Θ)΅½΅•ΉΡΥ΄ΈQ‘”Ω•Ρ•Ι…ΉΜ΅…‘”„‰Ι•…¬έ₯Ρ 5՝…‰”™½ΘΡ‘”)™₯ΙΝЁΡ₯΅”‰δΝΡ…Ρ₯Ήœ°ƒŠq]”Ή½Ρ”°έ₯Ρ ½Ή•ΙΈ°Ν‘½¬…Ή‘₯Μ΄)΅…䰁ё”ΝεΝΡ•΅…Ρ₯Œ•ΉΡΙ•Ή‘΅•ΉΠ½˜‘₯Ρ…Ρ½Ι₯…°Ρ•Ή‘•Ή₯•Μ°)Α•ΙΝ½Ή₯™₯•‰δΡ‘”ΑΙ•Ν₯‘•ΉΠ…Ή‘₯́½‘½ΙΡΜ°έ‘₯ ‘…Ω”Ν±½έ±δ)‘•Ω½ΥΙ•Ρ‘”Ω…±Υ”½˜Ρ‘”±₯‰•Ι…Ρ₯½ΈΝΡΙ՝±”»Št€ΘāQ‘”Y•Ρ•Ι…ΉΜ)ΝΝ½₯…Ρ₯½Έ…‘‘•Ρ‘…Ё₯ЁݽձΉΌ±½Ή•ΘΝΥΑΑ½ΙЁ5՝…‰—ŠeΜ)Α½±₯Ρ₯…°…΅Α…₯ΉΜ€Θȁ…́₯Ё‘…έ₯Ρ Ω½Ρ•Μ°™ΥΉ‘₯Ήœ…Ή₯ΉΡ₯΅€΄)‘…Ρ₯½Έ½˜½ΑΑ½Ν₯Ρ₯½Έ…ΉΩ½Ρ•Ί₯ΈΡ‘”Α…ΝΠΈ5՝…‰”Ι•ΝΑ½Ή‘•