Onshore Energy Conference — London Onshore Energy Conference — London | Page 51

THE P H REPORT
of “muddle through” policy of the type
being attempted by May today. This has
only been challenged in times of existential
crisis, when the need for firm leadership
led to the emergence of Winston Churchill
and Margaret Thatcher. In the case of Brexit,
this would require someone to stand up and
successfully mobilise the existing pro-Single
Market majority in Parliament. Effectively, this
was the Scenario suggested by Tusk when
he noted that eventually, once the UK was
forced to confront the costs of EU exit, it
might decide not to leave “even if today,
hardly anyone believes in such a possibility”
• Brexit is Brexit. This is the more likely
Scenario, where the government resists
attempts to modify its stance, and instead
prioritises immigration controls at the cost
of leaving the Single Market, and possibly the
Customs Union. This policy would represent
the line of least resistance for Theresa May in
terms of maintaining political support within
the Conservative Party. It would also likely
doom to failure her attempts to “have her cake
and eat it” in terms of special arrangements
for sectors such as auto and finance

• Political chaos. A 3rd alternative is also
possible, where Brexit negotiations lead to
major economic upheaval. This could include
a run on the pound and a dramatic rise in
interest rates, plus a decline in employment
and tax revenue due to foreign-owned firms
leaving the UK due to the loss of ‘passporting
rights’. The main beneficiary of this Scenario
could well be Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party,
with its mix of class-war dogma and populism

5

Conclusion

The world is likely to become a very
different place over the next 3 – 5 years. We
only need to remove the bracketed 2 words
from Dan Amman’s insight to imagine the
potential change that is now underway:
“We think there’s going to be more change
in the world [of mobility] in the next five
years than there has been in the last fifty”.
We strongly believe that “business as
usual” strategies, which have served so
well over the past 50 years, have now
become more or less irrelevant. Scenario
analysis, of the type we have attempted
here, seems essential for those who want to
become Winners in this new environment.

leC is a London-based strategy consultancy advising Fortune 500 and FTSE 100 companies, investment banks and fund managers.
Paul Hodges

Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga

James Gruber

Disclaimer

Is a trusted adviser to major
companies and the investment
community, and has a proven track
record of accurately identifying
key trends in global marketplaces.
He has been widely recognised for
correctly forewarning of the 2008
global financial crisis. His analysis
of the key role of demographics in
driving the global economy is now
attracting increasing interest from
senior policymakers and executives.
Paul is Chairman of International
eChem (IeC) and non-executive
Chairman of NiTech Solutions Ltd.
Prior to launching IeC in 1995,
Paul spent 17 years with Imperial
Chemical Industries (ICI), both in
England and the USA, where he
held senior executive positions in
petrochemicals and chloralkali, and
was Executive Director of a $1 billion
ICI business. Paul is an appointed
member of the World Economic
Forum’s Industrial Council, a

Was the first foreigner to be
granted permission to run the
finance company of a top-tier
Chinese State Owned Enterprise,
when establishing and managing
ChemChina Finance Company.
Previously, Daniël held a variety
of senior positions in corporate
and investment banking,
including as Asia Pacific Head of
Chemicals and Asia Head Asset
Based Finance for ABN AMRO.
He has lived in Hong Kong for 16
years, and continues to spend much
of his time in China, advising both
international and Chinese firms,
as well as leaders in the public
and private sectors. Daniël is a
graduate of Leiden University in
the Netherlands, holding a Master
of Law degree with a speciality of
International law.

Is a 14-year veteran of financial
markets, having covered them
as a leading fund manager,
stockbroking analyst and
journalist. Most recently, he
spent 20 months as the founder /
publisher of the widely-followed
investment newsletter, Asia
Confidential, which focused on key
macroeconomic issues facing the
Asia Pacific region. Prior to this, he
was a Portfolio Manager for Asian
Equities at AMP Capital, managing
Asian and China A-share funds
totaling US$1bn, for two years.
The performance of the China
A-share fund was ranked no. 1
globally over one and two years
during his time there. For five
years prior to this, James was a
senior research analyst at leading
Asian brokerage, CLSA, where
he covered multiple sectors in
Hong Kong, Australia, Malaysia
and Indonesia. He began his

This article has been prepared by
IeC for general circulation. The
information contained in this
article may be retained. It has
not been prepared for the benefit
of any particular company or
client and may not be relied
upon by any company or client or
other third party. IeC do not give
investment advice and are not
regulated under the UK Financial
Services Act. If, notwithstanding
the foregoing, this article is
relied upon by any person, IeC
does not accept, and disclaims,
all liability for loss and damage
suffered as a result.

Freeman of the City of London, a
graduate of the University of York,
and subsequently studied with the
IMD business school.

© International eChem 2016

working life as a news journalist
at the Australian Broadcasting
Corporation.

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