Onshore Energy Conference — London Onshore Energy Conference — London | Page 41
CLAIMS SOLUTIONS
the latest IMF data for global GDP versus the
American Chemistry Council’s global chemical
Capacity Utilisation (CU%) – both in terms of
percentage change from the previous year:
The IMF data is for the percentage
change in global GDP at constant prices
(their “headline number”), using the
October 2016 World Economic Outlook
IMF GLOBAL GDP v ACC CHEMICAL CAPACITY UTILISATION
% CHANGE, 1988 – 2016 (F)
CHEMICAL
CU%
6.0
GDP %
6.0
4.0
5.0
2.0
4.0
0.0
3.0
-2.0
2.0
-4.0
-6.0
1.0
0.0
IMF Global GDP
-8.0
ACC Capacity Utilisation
-10.0
20
16
(
20
14
20
12
08
06
04
02
00
8
20
10
20
20
20
20
20
19
9
19
96
19
94
19
92
F)
-12.0
0
-1.0
8
We have long argued that the global chemical
industry is the best real-time indicator of the
global economy. This is partly because of its
size, as the 3rd largest industry in the world
after agriculture and energy, but also because
of its global and application reach. Every
country in the world uses relatively large
volumes of chemicals, and their applications
cover virtually all sectors of the economy from plastics, energy and agriculture to
pharmaceuticals, detergents and textiles.
Chart 1 demonstrates the point, showing
19
9
1
Global chemical data suggests
recovery remains elusive
Chart 1: Close
correlation exists
between ACC and
IMF data
19
8
30% cyclical decline at best, and may well be
undergoing a secular change whereby the key
driver for future revenue growth and profits
will be focused on the market for mobility,
rather than auto ownership. Finally, we return
to the Brexit debate, where the UK government
is shortly going to have to choose between
five quite different options for a post-Brexit
SOURCE: Ph Report: IMF World Economic Outlook, American Chemistry Council
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