Onshore Energy Conference — London Onshore Energy Conference — London | Page 33

POWER MARKET From a BI perspective the Capacity Market income for a station should be relatively straight forward to quantify. The difficulty will be establishing the claw-back of revenue as this can only be confirmed once the actual number of Stress Events are known. Theoretically, a 6 month outage could result in the entire annual revenue being lost if there are sufficient Stress Events and a 12 month outage could result in no loss at all if there are no Stress Events. This will make setting reserves more challenging still. Touching briefly on the BI implications of Brexit, the current level of uncertainty make it difficult to be too specific. For example, it could impact our electricity imports from Europe, which are increasing year-on-year as shown in Illustration iii, and our participation in the EU ETS carbon trading scheme. However, what is certain is the pound’s devaluation against other currencies such as the Euro and US Dollar will have a financial impact on costs and sales. iii) INTERCONNECTOR IMPORTS 2 20 16 – Q Q 1 4 20 16 – Q 20 15 – Q 3 2 – – Q 20 15 Q 1 20 15 4 20 15 – Q 20 14 – Q 3 2 – – Q 20 14 Q 1 20 14 4 – Q 20 14 20 13 – Q 3 2 – – Q 20 13 Q 1 20 13 – 20 13 20 12 – Q 4 3 2 Q – – Q 20 12 20 12 20 12 – Q 1 TWh As explained at last year’s conference, the Electricity Market Reforms (“EMR”) have introduced a Capacity Market to help maintain security of supply. The Capacity Market financially incentivises new and existing generators to maintain availability. However, the incentive payments do not start until late 2018 and so will be of little assistance in the short term. The Capacity Market comprises of an annual auction which takes place four years before the year of delivery (to allow time to build new stations). The first auction was held on 18 December 2014 for the year commencing 1 October 2018 and it secured 49,259MW of Capacity at a clearing price of £19.40 per KW. A second auction was held on 10 December 2015 for the year commencing 1 October 2019 and this secured 46,354MW of Capacity at a clearing price of £18.00 per KW. The results of this auction by technology (i.e. fuel) type are summarised in Illustration ii. Successful units will then receive this additional revenue for each KW of capacity they bid so, for example, 7.0 a 600MW station will receive £10.8M for the year 6.0 commencing October 2019. These payments are made 5.0 to the station regardless of their actual generation. However, should the station 4.0 not be providing this level of generation during a 3.0 System Stress Event* then the revenue is clawed back 2.0 at a rate of 1/24th of the annual payment for each 1.0 hour of non-generation. The claw-back is capped 0.0 at two months revenue per month and 100% of the annual revenue per year. * A System Stress Event is a settlement period in which a System Operator Instigated Demand Control Event (“SOIDCE”) occurs lasting for at least 15 minutes. A SOIDCE is when the System Operator issues a demand reduction instruction to one of more Distribution Network Operators. 33