english issue
Short-term energy outlook
Forecast Highlights
• Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged
$46 per barrel (b) in June, a $4/b decrease from the May
average and the lowest monthly average since November
of last year when prices averaged $45/b.
• Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $51/b in 2017
and $52/b in 2018, $2/b and $4/b lower than projected
in last month’s STEO, respectively. Average West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to be $2/b
lower than the Brent price in both 2017 and 2018. NYMEX
contract values for October 2017 delivery that traded during
the five-day period ending July 6 suggest that a range of
$36/b to $60/b encompasses the market expectation for
WTI prices in October 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
• U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.35 per
gallon (gal) in June, down 4 cents/gal from the average
in May. During the April-through-September summer
driving season of 2017, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices
are forecast to average $2.38/gal, 15 cents/gal higher than
last summer. U.S. r egular gasoline retail prices are forecast
to average $2.32/gal in 2017 and $2.33/gal in 2018.
• U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million
barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and is forecast to average
9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA forecasts production to average
9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest
annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the
previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
• Dry natural gas production is forecast to average
73.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.0 Bcf/d
increase from the 2016 level. Forecast dry natural gas
production increases by an average of 3.1 Bcf/d in 2018.
• Natural gas storage injections typically occur from April
through the first half of November. EIA projects that natural
gas inventories will be 3,940 Bcf at the end of October 2017,
which would be 2% higher than the five-year average but 2%
lower than the record high end-of-October level from 2016.
• Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are forecast to average
$3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2017
and $3.40/MMBtu in 2018, compared with a 2016 average
of $2.51/MMBtu, which was the lowest annual average
price since 1999.
• EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity
generation from natural gas to fall from 34% in 2016 to
31% in both 2017 and 2018 as a result of higher expected
natural gas prices and higher electricity generation from
renewable sources. Coal’s forecast generation share
rises from 30% in 2016 to 31% in both 2017 and 2018.
Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to provide 9% of
electricity generation in 2017 and nearly 10% in 2018. The
generation share of hydropower is forecast to be about 7%
in both 2017 and 2018. The nuclear share of generation
remains just under 20% in both 2017 and 2018.
• After declining by 1.7% in 2016, energy-related carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions are forecast to decrease by 0.6%
in 2017 and increase by 1.7% in 2018. Energy-related CO2
emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic
growth, and energy prices.
Analysis & projection:
by eia source
O I L & G A S b u si n e ss / NU M É R O 2 7 / j u i l l e t - a o û t 2 0 1 7 / 6 1