New Water Policy & Practice Journal
The German medicine market has grown continually in recent years . According to our prognoses , the upper-end scenario is that the usage of medicines intended for humans in Germany will increase by up to 70 percent by 2045 , and will thus present the environment and the water industry with huge challenges . Even in our lower-end scenario , we predict an increase of 40 percent compared to that of today .
Medicinal usage is dominated by older population groups
The number of medications consumed by older age groups is above average : while 20 to 25-year-olds take 80 daily doses a year , 80 to 84-year-olds consume 1,669 daily doses per capita , approximately 20 times as many . The current proportion of people over 60 years old in the whole population will increase from today ’ s level of 27 to 36 percent by 2045 . Demographic development and age-related increased consumption are the principal causes of the enormous growth in medicinal drug consumption . However , a rapid per capita increase in consumption can also be expected in younger age groups .
Figure 1 : Growth prognosis for the consumption of prescription drugs for human use
The general use of drugs for human use will rise by about 70 percent by 2045
Our prognoses show that in a dynamic , non-linear projection of today ’ s age-specific per-capita usage , the total quantity of medicinal drugs for human use will rise by 68.5 percent by 2045 .
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