BUSINESS REPORT
GLOBAL CONSTRUCTION MARKET
TO GROW $8 TRILLION BY 2030
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Driven by China, US and India
US construction market to grow faster than China over next 15 years
Despite size, China powerhouse to drop to historic low of construction growth in 2016
India to provide a new engine of global growth for construction in emerging markets, growing at almost twice as fast as China
Europe will not recoup its ‘lost decade’ but the UK will be continental Europe’s stand-out growth market, overtaking Germany to become
the world’s sixth largest construction market by 2030
T
he report ,Global Construction
2030 – forecasts the volume of
construction output will grow by
85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide by 2030,
with three countries – China, US and
India – leading the way and accounting
for 57% of all global growth.
The benchmark global study - the fourth
in a series from Global Construction
Perspectives and Oxford Economics
- shows average global construction
growth of 3.9% pa to 2030, outpacing
that of global GDP by over one
percentage point, driven by developed
countries recovering from economic
instability and emerging countries
continuing to industrialize.
China construction growth is to slow
considerably with a slump in housing
and the first ever decline in housing
output for China will be registered this
www.ghmediabusiness.com
The abolition of China’s one-child policy
adds impetus to the long-term view. The
construction market in India will grow
almost twice as fast as China to 2 030,
providing a new engine of global growth
in emerging markets. India’s urban
population is expected to grow by a
staggering 165 million by 2030, swelling
Delhi by 10.4 million people to become
the world’s second largest city.
“Although globally we see construction
growing more rapidly than the overall
economy, with developed markets
forecast to rebound from their depressed
levels, many will not be back to their
previous peak levels even by 2030. The
current weakness in most emerging
countries is likely to be temporary, with
higher growth rates soon returning,”
says Mike Betts, Global Construction
Perspectives.
In the US construction growth will tilt
towards the southern states, reflecting
the region’s greater catch-up potential
and higher population growth.
“Whilst there is an interesting
relationship between the top three
countries, it is important not to forget
that we see significant weakness in Brazil
and Russia, whilst we see extraordinary
growth in Indonesia. In Latin America,
we expect Mexico to overtake Brazil,
whilst Indonesia will overtake Japan by
2030, says Jeremy Leonard, Director of
Industry Services, Oxford Economics.
Brazil risks a ‘lost decade’, as the
stranglehold of excessive bureaucracy
and the Petrobras scandal continues to
hold back the economy and investment.
The strong demographics that supported
Brazilian growth are reversing, leading to
stagnation in demand for construction
over the longer-term. When it comes to
Europe, whilst it won’t recover to reach
pre-crisis levels until 2025, the UK is a
stand-out growth market, overtaking
Germany to become the largest in
Europe and the world’s sixth largest
construction market by 2030.
“Construction is likely to be one of the
most dynamic industrial sectors in the
next fifteen years and is utterly crucial
to the evolution of prosperous societies
around the world. The numbers within
this report are huge and that translates
as creating vast numbers of new jobs
and creating significant wealth for
certain countries across the globe”, says
Fernando A. González, Chief Executive
of global building materials company
CEMEX.
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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“China’s share of the world construction
market will increase only marginally
as growth slows in the world’s largest
construction market to 2030. In
comparison, US construction will grow
faster than China over the next 15
years – growing by an average of five
percent per annum. Meanwhile, we’re
due to see a surge in construction rates
in India as it overtakes Japan to become
world’s third largest construction market
by 2021,” says Graham Robinson,
Executive Director, Global Construction
Perspectives.
year. But, its transition to a consumer
and services driven economy provides
opportunity for growth in new types of
construction in healthcare, education
and social infrastructure, as well as retail
and other consumer end-markets.