Military Review English Edition November-December 2015 - Page 17

URBAN INDIVIDUAL 3. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352), 2014, accessed 1 September 2015, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Highlights/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf. This source provides data regarding world demography and urbanization. 4. “Color revolution” refers to mass demonstrations that led to regime change in the former states of the Soviet Union and the Balkans. Examples include the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia, the Ukrainian Orange Revolution of 2004, the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2005, and the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine. 5. Valeriy Gerasimov, “On the Role of Military Force in Modern Conflicts,” Report of the Third Moscow Conference on International Security, Conference Materials, ed. A.I. Antonov, (Moscow: The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 2014), 15, accessed 13 June 2015, http://mil.ru/files/morf/MCIS_report_cat alogue_final_RUS_21_10_ preview.pdf. Original text: “Основным средством реализации политических замыслов становятся «цветные революции». … В их основе лежат политтехнологии, предусматривающие манипуляцию извне протестным потенциалом населения в сочетании с политическими, экономическими, гуманитарными и другими невоенными мерами.” Translated by E. Claessen. 6. Russian Army Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov “New Challenges Require Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Warfare,” ВоенноПромышленная курьер 8(476), 27 February 2013, accessed 13 June 2015, http://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/14632. Original text: “И сами «правила войны» существенно изменились. Возросла роль невоенных способов в достижении политических и стратегических целей, которые в ряде случаев по своей эффективности значительно превзошли силу оружия.” Translated by E. Claessen. 7. Vladimir Putin, Transcript of the Meeting of the Security Council on 20 November 2014, accessed 13 June 2015, http:// kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47045. Original text: “Мы видим, к каким трагическим последствиям привела волна так называемых «цветных революций» … Для нас это урок и предупреждение, и мы обязаны сделать всё необходимое, чтобы подобное никогда не случилось в России.” Translated by E. Claessen. 8. Army Doctrine Publication (ADP) 3-0, Unified Land Operations (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office [GPO], 10 October 2011), 5. 9. James T. Quinlivan, “Force Requirements in Stability Operations,” Parameters (Winter 1995): 59–69. 10. Ibid., 69. Quinlivan concisely explains what this means in practice: “The combination of force ratios, current populations, the size of existing infantry forces, and the implications for rotation can be astounding. Force ratios larger than ten members of the security forces for every thousand of population are not uncommon in current operations (Northern Ireland, or even Mogadishu). Sustaining a stabilization force at such a force ratio for a city as large as one million … could require a deployment of about a quarter of all regular infantry battalions in the U.S. Army.” 11. Olga Oliker, Russia’s Chechen Wars 1994-2000: Lessons from Urban Combat (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2001). The analysis of the battles of Grozny draws on the study found in this book. 12. Carl von Clausewitz, On War, 97. 13. Ibid. 14. Martin van Creveld, Defending Israel: a Controversial Plan toward Peace (New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 2004), 148. 15. Ibid., 26. “For many years after 1967 the forces needed to keep down the Territories were negligible, consisting of just a few battalions.” MILITARY REVIEW  November-December 2015 16. Ibid., 148. 17. On 16 February 2005, the Implementation of the Disengagement Plan Law (Compensation for Evacuees) was passed with fifty-nine members of the Knesset in favor, forty against, and five abstaining, accessed 13 June 2015, http://www.knesset.gov.il/review/ YearPage.aspx?yr=2005&lng=3. 18. Field Manual (FM) 3-24, Counterinsurgency (Washington, DC: U.S. GPO, 15 December 2006), 3–11, now obsolete, superseded by FM 3-24, Insurgencies and Countering Insurgencies, (Washington, DC: U.S. GPO, 13 May 2014), see pages 2-6 to 2-7 for a discussion of the effects of economic variables. 19. U.S. State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2009, August 2010, 251, accessed 14 August 2015, http://www.state.gov/ documents/organization/141114.pdf. Hamas provides an example of global fundraising: “HAMAS receives some funding, weapons, and training from Iran. In addition, fundraising takes place in the Persian Gulf countries, but the group also receives donations from Palestinian expatriates around the world. Some fundraising and propaganda activity takes place in Western Europe and North America.” 20. Annabelle Sreberny-Mohammadi and Ali Mohammadi, Small Media, Big Revolution: Communication, Culture and the Iranian Revolution (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 1994). This source provides information on the role of audiocassettes in the Iranian Revolution. The Iranian Ayatollah Khomeini was a pioneer in the use of novel communications that escaped regime control. He recorded political sermons on audiocassettes and distributed them among Shi’ite pilgrims who visited his city of exile, Najaf in Iraq. The widespread use of cheap Japanese cassette players during the seventies was a prelude to social media. Instead of tuning into state-controlled media, Iranians listened to Khomeini’s stirring speeches, copied the cassettes, and passed them on to friends and relatives. For the first time in history, individuals were able to select, copy, and share voice-recorded information. This ability played an important role in the urban mass mobilization that led to the downfall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (“the Shah”) and the emergence of the Islamic Republic. 21. ADP 3-0, Unified Land Operations, 4. 22. Ibid., 5. 23. Crisis Group Middle East Report No. 55, “Iraq’s Muqtada’s al-Sadr: Spoiler or Stabiliser,” International Crisis Group website, 11 July 2006, 7 and 9, accessed 14 August 2015, http://www.crisisgroup. org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20 Syria%20Lebanon/Iraq/55_iraq_s_muqtada_al_sadr_spoiler_or_stabiliser.pdf. “Muqtada demonstrated his ability to reflect and channel inchoate popular feelings as early as his first Friday prayer (al-Khutba), delivered in Kufa on 11 April 2003. He asked Shiites to express their piety by undertaking a pilgrimage to Karbala on foot. … Coming on the heels of the regime’s fall, the massive celebrations offered Shiites a first opportunity to see and measure their new, colossal force.” 24. Anton Bebler, “Crimea and the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict,” Romanian Journal of European Affairs Vol. 15(1) (March 2015). This source provides an analysis of events leading to the annexation of the Crimea. 25. “Procedure for Obtaining Russian Citizenship will be Simplified for Residents of the CIS” Interfax, 27 February 2014, accessed 13 June 2015, http://www.interfax.ru/russia/361446. Original text: “русскоязычным гражданам бывшего СССР вне зависимости от их национальности, столкнувшимся с реальной угрозой дискриминации по этнокультурной, политической или профессиональной принадлежности.” Translated by E. Claessen. 15